Business · Economy · 14 hrs ago
Google searches became less useful for tracking Turkish home prices after 2023
Researchers at Turkey’s central bank examined Google searches as a possible housing-market indicator using data from June 2021 to May 2026.
They compared an index built from housing-related searches with inflation-adjusted home prices and official home sales.
Before monetary tightening began in 2023, search activity moved closely with real home-price growth.
That relationship weakened after the policy shift, which the study dates to July 2023.
Higher borrowing costs may have made search interest less likely to translate into price changes, but the study does not prove why the link weakened.
Search data reduced simulated price-forecast errors by 20.2% before tightening, but it did not improve forecasts afterward.
Searches still had a positive link with home sales after tightening, but did not make sales forecasts more accurate; the researchers say these indicators should be assessed separately across policy periods and outcomes.
A study by two Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye researchers found that Google search activity became much less closely linked to real home-price changes after monetary tightening began in 2023.
The study identified July 2023 as the point when the relationship changed.
Before tightening, a typical rise in the search index was associated with monthly real home-price growth about 1.6 to 1.7 percentage points higher.
Adding Google search data reduced simulated price-forecast errors by 20.2% before tightening, but that benefit did not continue afterward.
Google searches remained positively related to home sales after tightening, but did not improve sales forecasts.
- Who
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye researchers Altuğ Aydemir and Ali Sevim.
- What
- Their study examined whether Google searches could serve as indicators of home prices and sales in Türkiye. It found that the search-price relationship weakened after monetary tightening began.
- When
- The study used data from June 2021 to May 2026 and was dated October 2026. It identified July 2023 as the relationship’s turning point.
- Where
- Türkiye.
- Why
- The study linked the weaker relationship to the shift in monetary policy and tighter financing conditions, but did not establish the cause.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Türkiye began raising its policy interest rate.
The study’s statistical break test identified this as the point when the relationship between Google searches and home prices changed.
The researchers’ study was dated.
Habertürk published its report on the study.
- Researchers
- Altuğ Aydemir and Ali Sevim
- Data period
- June 2021–May 2026
- Search terms reviewed
- 256
- Search terms used in index
- 72
- Turning point
- July 2023
- Pre-tightening forecast error reduction
- 20.2%