Business · Companies · 3 hrs ago
Forrester says AI bubble is not imminent but urges companies to prepare
Forrester says an AI bubble is not about to burst, but advises businesses to prepare for a possible market correction.
The concern is that investment in AI computing infrastructure has outpaced measurable returns.
Forrester says about nine-tenths of the funding comes from large technology companies using their own cash, while financial risks are concentrated among some strained builders and circular financing deals.
If demand falls short as new capacity comes online, suppliers could cut investment, change prices, merge or stop offering products.
That could leave businesses needing to rework plans around suppliers and services that remain available.
Forrester advises companies to track whether AI projects deliver measurable value, assess suppliers’ finances and plan how to move workloads if a vendor fails or withdraws support.
Businesses should keep investing where AI’s value can be shown, while preparing for possible changes in the market.
Forrester says an AI bubble is not about to burst but advises companies to prepare for a possible market correction.
The analyst says infrastructure spending has outpaced measurable returns, while the financial strength of the companies funding expansion makes an imminent crash less likely.
Forrester says risks are concentrated among some financially strained builders and in circular financing deals with AI labs.
A correction could lead suppliers to cut investment, merge, change prices or discontinue products, forcing customers to revise their AI plans.
Forrester advises companies to measure the value of AI projects, monitor supplier finances and plan how to move data and workloads if needed.
- Who
- Forrester and companies using AI.
- What
- Forrester says an AI bubble is not about to burst, but urges companies to prepare for a possible correction.
- When
- The report was published on November 9, 2026.
- Where
- Not stated.
- Why
- Infrastructure investment has outpaced measurable returns, and a slowdown in demand could put suppliers and customer plans at risk.
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- Report
- An AI Bubble Burst Is Not Imminent
- Infrastructure funding
- About nine-tenths of the money building today's AI computing infrastructure comes from large technology companies' own cash flow, Forrester says.
- Break-even condition
- Forrester says infrastructure investments break even only if AI raises US GDP by 5 percent by 2035.
- Estimated productivity contribution
- Published estimates suggest productivity improvements could provide about two percentage points of that GDP uplift.
- Additional value needed
- Forrester estimates roughly $1.3 trillion must come from other sources of value.
What people are saying
Fears that an AI bubble is about to burst are premature
Oversupply on its own won't decide whether a correction comes. Demand will, and that's the biggest unknown, because it depends on enterprises finding lasting value in AI beyond simple productivity gains.