Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
Mexico’s economy shows stronger growth, but investment remains a concern
Mexico’s finance secretary Edgar Amador said economic activity grew 3.7% year on year in September, based on an early estimate from the national statistics agency.
He said this followed annual growth of 3.4% in July and 3.5% in August, though the figures cited are not the final quarterly GDP result.
The stronger figures have led international organizations to raise their 2026 growth forecasts for Mexico to 1.5%, from earlier estimates of 0.8% and 1.2%.
Amador pointed to jobs, recovering investment, exports and easing inflation as supports for the economy.
He also said foreign investment reached a record $34 billion in the first half of 2026, while exports rose 30% year on year from January to September.
A separate analysis warned that formal job creation is slowing and private investment remains cautious, despite the apparent growth boost from consumption and services.
That matters because spending alone may not sustain growth over the longer term, especially if businesses hold back on major projects.
The national statistics agency was due to publish its early third-quarter GDP estimate on October 30, 2026.
Mexico’s third-quarter economic growth may exceed forecasts, with recent data pointing to annual growth above 3 percent.
The national statistics agency, Inegi, is due to publish its preliminary GDP estimate on October 30.
Finance Secretary Edgar Amador said economic activity grew 3.7 percent year on year in September, according to Inegi’s preliminary estimate.
An El Economista opinion article cautioned that weak investment and slowing formal job creation undermine the apparent strength.
Amador cited public and private investment gains, while the article argued that private investment remains subdued and uncertain.
- Who
- Mexico’s economy, with Finance Secretary Edgar Amador commenting on its performance.
- What
- Third-quarter growth may beat forecasts, though an opinion article warned that weak investment and slowing formal job creation point to underlying fragility.
- When
- The third quarter of 2026; Inegi’s preliminary GDP estimate is due on October 30.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- Recent activity data for August and September suggest stronger growth than analysts had expected. The sources differ on whether this signals broad economic strength.
Edgar Amador
El Economista opinion article
Growth outlook
Edgar Amador
Amador said economic activity grew 3.7 percent year on year in September and that analysts had raised their outlooks.
El Economista opinion article
The article said third-quarter growth could beat forecasts but warned that a strong GDP figure would not prove the economy is healthy.
Investment
Edgar Amador
Amador cited annual growth in public investment through July and private investment in July, as well as record first-half foreign direct investment.
El Economista opinion article
The article said fixed investment still lacked a firm footing and that private investment remained restrained by uncertainty.
Employment and demand
Edgar Amador
Amador identified the labor market as one factor supporting the economy.
El Economista opinion article
The article said formal job creation was slowing and that consumption was being supported by public transfers, remittances and credit rather than investment.
Public investment was up 10.2 percent year on year through July, while private investment rose 6.7 percent year on year in July, according to El Financiero.
Mexico’s economic activity grew 3.7 percent year on year, according to the preliminary estimate cited by Amador.
The IMF raised its forecast for Mexico’s 2026 growth from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.
Amador described Mexico’s economic outlook positively, while El Economista MX published an opinion article warning about weak investment.
Inegi is due to publish its preliminary GDP estimate for the third quarter.
- September activity growth
- 3.7 percent year on year, according to Inegi’s preliminary estimate cited by Amador
- Third-quarter forecast
- Consensus estimate of 1.1 to 1.4 percent growth, according to El Economista MX
- Private investment
- Up 6.7 percent year on year in July, according to El Financiero
- Public investment
- Up 10.2 percent year on year through July, according to El Financiero
- Foreign direct investment
- 34 billion dollars in the first half of 2026, a record for that period
- Inegi GDP estimate
- Scheduled for October 30, 2026
4 sources
Economía de México supera expectativas: Crece 3.2% anual en tercer trimestre, el más alto en 3 años
PIB de México crece 0.9% en tercer trimestre; economía sigue al alza pese a incertidumbre por política comercial de EU
Espejismo trimestral: PIB al alza, inversión fría
What people are saying
The economy is doing well
Consumption without investment is as brief as a firework.