Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
Spain is the only major eurozone economy forecast to lose productivity since 2018
The IMF forecasts Spain’s productivity will fall 0.1% from 2018 to 2027, making it the only major eurozone economy with a decline over that period.
Productivity measures how much an economy produces and helps support higher incomes, competitive wages and the pension system.
Germany’s productivity is forecast to rise 1%, while the eurozone average is expected to increase 0.5%; France and Italy are also forecast to record small gains.
Spain has been assigned more than €100 billion in European funds since 2021, intended in part to transform its economy and improve productivity.
The IMF estimates productivity fell 1.4% in Spain in 2025, although it expects growth this year and next.
Unit labour costs in Spain rose 3.1% since 2018, faster than the eurozone average and Germany, and at about twice the pace in France and Italy.
Economists and institutions including the Bank of Spain and European Commission advise that labour costs should not rise faster than productivity.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Spain will be the only major eurozone economy to record a productivity decline over 2018–2027.
Spain’s productivity is forecast to fall by 0.1% over that period, while the eurozone average is expected to rise by 0.5%.
The IMF estimates that Spanish productivity fell by 1.4% in 2025.
Spain’s unit labour costs have risen by 3.1% since 2018, the largest increase among the major eurozone economies cited.
- Who
- Spain, compared with other major eurozone economies.
- What
- The IMF forecasts that Spain’s productivity will fall over 2018–2027, while its unit labour costs have risen.
- When
- The productivity comparison covers 2018–2027; the article was published on 14 October 2026.
- Where
- Spain and the eurozone. The IMF estimates were presented in Bangkok.
- Why
- The article reports the IMF’s productivity estimates but does not state a specific cause for Spain’s forecast decline.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Spain’s productivity increased by 3.2% over the period, according to the article.
Spain’s productivity is forecast to decline by 0.1% over 2018–2027, while unit labour costs have risen by 3.1%.
Spain was assigned more than €100 billion in European funds, which the article says were intended to transform the economy and improve productivity.
The IMF estimates that Spain’s productivity fell by 1.4%.
El Mundo published the article reporting the IMF’s estimates.
- Spain productivity forecast
- Down 0.1% over 2018–2027
- Eurozone average productivity
- Up 0.5% over 2018–2027
- Germany productivity
- Up 1% over 2018–2027
- France productivity
- Up 0.3% over 2018–2027
- Italy productivity
- Up 0.2% over 2018–2027
- Spain unit labour costs
- Up 3.1% since 2018
What people are saying
A growth of wages systematically higher than the growth of labour productivity is unsustainable. The opposite is also true. The goal is for wages and productivity to grow at the same rate.
Investors consider the regulatory environment, relatively high tax pressure and rising costs (for example, labour and energy) to be aspects that need to be improved.