Business · Markets · 2 hrs ago
Analysts expect rupiah to stay weak through the end of 2026
Currency analysts expect the rupiah to remain weak against the US dollar through the end of 2026.
Their forecasts differ: Lukman Leong says it could reach 18,350 rupiah per dollar, while Tauhid Ahmad expects it to stay around 18,000 to 18,100.
They point to high global oil prices, US interest rates and uncertainty over a possible downgrade of Indonesia’s stock market classification by MSCI.
That uncertainty has contributed to foreign investors pulling money out of Indonesia, adding pressure on the currency.
A weaker rupiah can make it harder for Indonesia to strengthen its exchange rate, and both analysts say a return to the 17,000 range is unlikely.
Bank Indonesia is pushing hedging measures and may intervene to limit further declines, but Tauhid says a rate below 18,000 is difficult to achieve.
Analysts expect the rupiah to remain weak against the US dollar through the end of 2026.
Currency analyst Lukman Leong said it could fall to Rp 18,350 per dollar if domestic and external pressures persist.
Senior INDEF economist Tauhid Ahmad forecast a narrower range of Rp 18,000 to Rp 18,100 through the fourth quarter.
They cited factors including high oil prices, US interest rates, and possible foreign capital outflows linked to MSCI’s review of Indonesia’s stock market.
Tauhid said Bank Indonesia was taking steps to limit further weakness.
- Who
- Currency analyst Lukman Leong and senior INDEF economist Tauhid Ahmad.
- What
- They expect the rupiah to remain weak against the US dollar through the end of 2026. Their forecasts differ on how far it may fall.
- When
- Through the end of 2026.
- Where
- Indonesia; the forecasts concern the rupiah’s exchange rate against the US dollar.
- Why
- They cited high oil prices, US interest rates, uncertainty over MSCI’s assessment of Indonesia’s stock market, and foreign capital outflows.
Lukman Leong
Tauhid Ahmad
End-2026 forecast
Lukman Leong
The rupiah could weaken to Rp 18,350 per dollar if pressures persist.
Tauhid Ahmad
The rupiah is likely to stay between Rp 18,000 and Rp 18,100.
Scope for further weakening
Lukman Leong
Continued capital outflows could push the rupiah lower, potentially into early 2027.
Tauhid Ahmad
He considers it difficult for the rupiah to move outside the Rp 18,000–Rp 18,100 range, citing expected intervention by Bank Indonesia.
The US dollar closed at Rp 18,156.
Lukman Leong and Tauhid Ahmad gave their forecasts to Detik.
The dollar opened at Rp 18,145 and was reported at Rp 18,160 at 09:10 WIB.
Detik published its report on the forecasts.
- Lukman Leong’s end-year estimate
- Rp 18,350 per US dollar
- Tauhid Ahmad’s end-year range
- Rp 18,000–Rp 18,100 per US dollar
- Reported dollar level
- Rp 18,160 at 09:10 WIB on 3 November
- Publication date
- 4 November 2026
What people are saying
Pressure on the rupiah could persist until the end of the year, especially because of uncertainty related to MSCI, foreign capital outflows, high US bond yields and oil prices.
Its position is still between 18,000 and 18,100 through the end of the fourth quarter.
Bank Indonesia will go all-out to keep the rupiah from falling too far.