Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 7 hrs ago
Study warns South Korea could lose Pacific flying squid catch by the 2040s
A study by researchers at Pukyong National University predicts that South Korea could lose its Pacific flying squid catch by the 2040s.
Pacific flying squid is the country’s most popular squid species and has long been a familiar food.
South Korea’s squid catch is now one-sixteenth of its 2002 level, and catches from 2023 to 2025 were less than 10% of the 1999 peak.
Researchers linked the decline to warming seas and marine heat waves, with strong La Niña conditions also associated with more heat waves in later seasons.
Sea surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula rose 0.7°C over the past decade, more than twice the global average.
The shortage has sent squid prices soaring, and the government has sought more permits for deep-sea fishing in foreign waters.
Models put a possible zero-catch scenario between 2043 and 2048, depending on future emissions.
A study estimates South Korea could face zero catches of Pacific flying squid in its waters by the 2040s.
The researchers say climate change and marine heat waves are making traditional fishing grounds less suitable.
Their models put the possible timing of zero catches between 2043 and 2048, depending on emissions outcomes.
South Korea’s current squid catch is one-sixteenth of its 2002 volume, according to national statistics.
Sea surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula rose 0.7°C over the past decade, more than twice the global average.
- Who
- Researchers at Pukyong National University studied the Pacific flying squid fishery.
- What
- The study estimates South Korea could have no Pacific flying squid catch in its waters by the 2040s.
- When
- The projected zero-catch scenarios could occur as soon as 2043 or as late as 2048.
- Where
- South Korean waters around the Korean Peninsula.
- Why
- The study links the risk to long-term ocean warming and marine heat waves.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Researchers compared fishery records with data on sea temperatures, ocean currents, winds and Pacific climate conditions.
The study was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
The researchers’ models project possible zero-catch scenarios in South Korean waters, depending on emissions outcomes.
- Projected zero catch
- 2043–2048
- Recent catch volume
- One-sixteenth of South Korea’s 2002 volume
- Peak catch
- Roughly 225,122 tons in 1999
- Sea temperature rise
- 0.7°C around the Korean Peninsula over the past decade
- Study period
- Fishery records from 1993 to 2025
What people are saying
Our findings suggest that squid face several connected pressures
Long-term warming is making traditional fishing grounds less suitable, while marine heat waves — periods of unusually warm seawater lasting at least five consecutive days — add episodes of intense heat stress.
It was abundant, affordable and a familiar part of everyday meals