Business · Companies · 2 hrs ago
CREA cuts its 2026 Canadian home sales forecast for third straight quarter
The Canadian Real Estate Association cut its 2026 home sales forecast for the third straight quarter.
It now expects 444,530 homes to sell in Canada this year, 5.2% fewer than in 2025.
In July, CREA had forecast a much smaller year-over-year decline of 1.4%.
The national average home price is still forecast to rise 0.2% this year, to $681,681, though that estimate is about $5,000 lower than in summer.
In September, sales fell 7.7% from a year earlier, and the typical-home price index was down 3.4% year over year.
Higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about a possible Bank of Canada rate hike may keep some buyers on the sidelines while affordability is already stretched.
CREA downgraded its 2026 Canadian home sales forecast for the third straight quarter.
It expects 444,530 homes to sell this year, 5.2 per cent fewer than in 2025.
The forecast is lower than CREA’s July projection of a 1.4 per cent annual decline.
CREA expects the national average home price to rise 0.2 per cent to $681,681 in 2026.
National sales and prices fell year over year in September.
- Who
- The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
- What
- CREA downgraded its 2026 home sales forecast and projected a small annual increase in the average home price.
- When
- The forecast update was reported on October 16, 2026.
- Where
- Canada.
- Why
- CREA cited weaker housing-market activity and uncertainty around mortgage rates and inflation.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
National home sales were down 7.7 per cent from September 2025 and fell 2.3 per cent from August.
CREA’s updated forecast for Canadian home sales and average prices was reported.
- 2026 home sales forecast
- 444,530 homes
- Year-over-year sales forecast
- 5.2 per cent decrease from 2025
- July sales forecast
- 1.4 per cent year-over-year decline
- 2026 average-price forecast
- $681,681, up 0.2 per cent
- September national average sale price
- $666,538, down 1.6 per cent year over year
3 sources
What people are saying
After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September
Until that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.