Politics · Brazil · 42 mins ago
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro enter Brazil runoff in a close race
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro face each other in Sunday’s presidential runoff.
In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, a gap of about 2.2 million votes.
Lula’s campaign stepped up efforts to win over supporters of other candidates and people who had not voted, helping narrow the gap in the polls.
But final surveys from Datafolha and Quaest put Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, while AtlasIntel/Bloomberg put them at 50.8% and 49.2%.
Those leads are within the polls’ margins of error, so the surveys show a technical tie, not a certain winner.
Voter turnout could have a significant effect on the result, and the outcome will be decided at the ballot box.
Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were set to face each other in Brazil’s presidential runoff on October 25.
Polls published before the vote showed a close race, with Flávio generally leading Lula within the margin of error.
In the first round, Flávio received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%, according to InfoMoney.
Lula’s campaign mobilised supporters and sought votes from people who backed other candidates or did not vote in the first round.
The polling gap narrowed during the campaign, but final surveys did not show Lula overtaking Flávio.
- Who
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- They were competing in Brazil’s presidential runoff election.
- When
- October 25, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The sources describe the candidates’ campaign and the close contest; they do not state a single reason for the runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Lula's campaign
Electoral position
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Flávio finished ahead of Lula in the first round and remained numerically ahead in most final polls.
Lula's campaign
Lula narrowed the polling gap during the runoff campaign, but final polls did not show him moving ahead.
Campaign approach
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Flávio attracted much of the electorate of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and adopted a more moderate posture in the final debate.
Lula's campaign
Lula intensified supporter mobilisation and sought votes from people who backed other candidates or did not vote in the first round.
Flávio received 47.03% of valid votes in the first round, while Lula received 45.16%.
Lula intensified efforts to mobilise supporters and reach voters who had backed other candidates or stayed away from the polls.
Datafolha recorded a numerical tie at 50% each in valid votes, according to InfoMoney.
Final polls reported Flávio narrowly ahead, generally within the margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula were scheduled to compete in the presidential runoff.
- Runoff date
- October 25, 2026
- First-round result, Flávio Bolsonaro
- 47.03% of valid votes
- First-round result, Lula
- 45.16% of valid votes
- Datafolha final poll
- Flávio 48%, Lula 47%; margin of error 2 percentage points
- Quaest final poll
- Flávio 46%, Lula 45%; margin of error 2 percentage points
6 sources
Eleitores indecisos acompanhados pela Folha definem voto sem superar insatisfação com opções
Pesquisas de 2022 davam vitória mais larga a Lula; veja o que ocorreu nas urnas
Bolsonaro, Lula about even in polls for Brazil runoff vote
Ganhar a eleição é uma coisa. Liderar o país é outra
Saiba como estão Lula e Flávio nas pesquisas a 2 dias da eleição
What people are saying
E quem pode garantir, pelo menos até agora, é o Lula. Pra muita gente é questão de sobrevivência, não é questão de luxo, de vaidade, não, sabe?
Eu acredito muito pouco no Flávio Bolsonaro. E acredito muito menos no Lula
Ele enrola muito, desconversa, não responde o que é para responder. Então achei que, sabe, não vi nada de diferente não, assim. Eu não tô satisfeita.