Business · Markets · 48 mins ago
Real futures fall 9.14% as Lula leads Brazil election count
Brazil’s real futures fell 9.14% as votes were being counted in the presidential runoff.
A Datafolha projection showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beating Flávio Bolsonaro, though the count was still under way.
In recent weeks, Brazilian stocks had risen as investors anticipated a Bolsonaro victory, and analysts expected that market mood to reverse after the projection.
Some investors fear Lula’s re-election could mean less action to control public spending, putting pressure on the currency and interest rates.
The extension of voting hours, ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, also raised concerns about legal uncertainty around the election.
Analysts say market volatility could increase if challenges leave the result in doubt, while a recognised result and quick, clear responses could ease tensions.
The November 2026 real futures contract fell more than 9% on the Chicago futures market as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led Brazil’s presidential election count.
Folha reported the contract was down 9.14% at 20:20.
With 99.78% of votes counted, Lula had 51.76% of valid votes, compared with 48.24% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to InfoMoney.
Analysts cited concern about Brazil’s public finances and uncertainty after a court ordered voting to be extended in some locations.
InfoMoney reported that the US-traded EWZ Brazil ETF was down 18.53% in after-hours trading at 21:16 Brasília time.
- Who
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential election count.
- What
- The November 2026 real futures contract fell more than 9%, including a reported 9.14% decline.
- When
- October 25, 2026. Folha reported the futures move at 20:20.
- Where
- The futures market at the Chicago exchange.
- Why
- Analysts cited concerns about public finances and uncertainty linked to the extension of voting hours.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacies were confirmed, according to Folha.
Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting to be extended until 19:00 Brasília time, according to InfoMoney.
The November 2026 real futures contract was down more than 9% on the Chicago futures market, according to Folha.
The EWZ Brazil ETF was down 18.53% in after-hours trading, according to InfoMoney.
- Futures contract
- November 2026 real contract
- Reported futures decline
- 9.14%
- Futures market
- Chicago
- Lula’s share of valid votes
- 51.76% with 99.78% counted
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s share of valid votes
- 48.24% with 99.78% counted
- EWZ after-hours decline
- 18.53% to US$34.69 at 21:16 Brasília time
3 sources
What people are saying
The extension of voting added a layer of institutional uncertainty to an election that already concentrates important expectations about the conduct of the economy.
All this confusion caused by the TSE will only serve for the losing side to find an excuse, whichever side it is.