Politics · Brazil · 3 hrs ago
Poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Brazil presidential race
A BTG/Nexus poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Brazil's presidential race, with 52% to Lula's 48% among valid votes.
The poll interviewed 2,002 voters by phone from October 10 to 12, and its margin of error is two percentage points.
Valid votes exclude blank, invalid and undecided ballots and are the measure used to calculate the final tally.
In total votes, Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula 45%, while 5% say they will cast blank or invalid ballots and 2% are undecided or did not answer.
Bolsonaro also led in the first round on October 4, winning 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%.
Lula's campaign is holding street events and mobilising online, while Bolsonaro has sought support from other parties and acted on social media and in election courts.
Both campaigns are working to shift support, but the poll does not say what the final result will be.
A BTG/Nexus poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 48% in Brazil’s presidential race.
Among all respondents, Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula 45%, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
The poll surveyed 2,002 voters by telephone from October 10 to 12 and was released on October 13.
In the October 4 first round, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%.
Lula’s campaign has focused on street events and online mobilization, while Bolsonaro has sought support from other parties and stepped up online and legal efforts.
- Who
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the presidential candidates.
- What
- A BTG/Nexus poll puts Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in valid votes, 52% to 48%.
- When
- The poll was released on October 13, 2026, after interviews conducted October 10–12.
- Where
- Brazil. Voters were surveyed by telephone.
- Why
- Not stated
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16% in the first round.
BTG/Nexus surveyed 2,002 voters by telephone.
BTG/Nexus released poll results showing Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in valid votes.
Protests drew large crowds in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Recife.
- Valid votes
- Bolsonaro 52%; Lula 48%
- Total votes
- Bolsonaro 48%; Lula 45%
- Margin of error
- Two percentage points in either direction
- Survey sample
- 2,002 voters interviewed by telephone
- Survey dates
- October 10–12, 2026
- Poll registration
- TSE code BR-07997/2026
Sources
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