Business · Energy & Commodities · 1 hr ago
Britain expected to have enough energy for winter despite rising imports
Britain is expected to have enough energy to meet demand this winter, according to its electricity and gas system operators.
The electricity forecast includes a 5.9-gigawatt surplus, equal to a 9.5% buffer against peak demand.
Tight days could still occur in December or January, when cold weather and low wind and sunshine can reduce supply as heating demand rises.
The National Energy System Operator may issue notices asking the market to bring in extra power on those days.
Gas supplies are expected to meet demand, but UK production is forecast to fall by about 5% while liquefied natural gas imports rise by about 6%.
Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has increased competition for gas and pushed up prices.
Household energy prices are expected to rise further from January, after the price cap increased in October.
Britain is expected to have enough gas and electricity to meet demand this winter, according to outlooks from NESO and National Gas.
NESO forecasts a 5.9-gigawatt electricity surplus between the end of October and the end of March, a 9.5% buffer against peak demand.
Both outlooks allow for potential pressure on supply, with NESO warning of possible “tight days” and National Gas expecting more gas imports.
National Gas forecasts domestic gas production to fall by around 5% and liquefied natural gas imports to rise by around 6%.
The assurances come after an independent investigation found stress among NESO control-room staff but did not substantiate whistle-blower allegations.
- Who
- The National Energy System Operator (NESO) and National Gas issued outlooks on Britain’s energy supply.
- What
- They expect sufficient electricity and gas to meet demand this winter, despite possible tight days and rising reliance on imports.
- When
- Winter 2026–27; the outlooks were reported on 22 October 2026.
- Where
- Great Britain.
- Why
- NESO forecasts an electricity surplus, while National Gas expects imports to help offset declining domestic production.
Whistle-blowers
NESO and Eversheds Sutherland
Alleged concealment
Whistle-blowers
Whistle-blowers alleged NESO staff were encouraged to conceal or alter records about efforts to stabilise the grid.
NESO and Eversheds Sutherland
Eversheds said its investigation did not substantiate the allegations.
Grid security
Whistle-blowers
A whistle-blower alleged NESO was hiding information about how securely the grid was being run.
NESO and Eversheds Sutherland
NESO said the electricity system was prepared and expected supplies to remain secure throughout winter.
Conservative shadow energy secretary Clare Coutinho said she had been contacted by a whistle-blower alleging NESO was hiding information about grid security.
NESO’s winter outlook and the findings of an independent investigation were reported.
- Electricity surplus
- 5.9 gigawatts between the end of October and the end of March
- Electricity buffer
- 9.5% against peak demand during a cold spell
- Domestic gas production
- Forecast to fall by around 5%
- LNG imports
- Forecast to rise by around 6%
- Potential tight days
- Most likely in December or January
3 sources
What people are saying
While we never take resilience for granted, households and businesses can be confident that Great Britain's electricity system remains secure, reliable and among the most resilient in the world
Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in global energy markets, Britain enters this winter with a resilient and well-prepared electricity system.
I want all colleagues at NESO to feel heard. We will act on the recommendations, working closely with our trade unions, and be open with colleagues about the progress we make