Business · Energy & Commodities · 10 hrs ago
Poultry export curbs could push down chicken prices in southern Brazil
Newcastle disease was confirmed at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina, in southern Brazil.
The viral disease affects domestic and wild birds, and the case led several countries to restrict imports of Brazilian poultry products.
The restrictions differ: some apply to products from Santa Catarina, while Malaysia and Mexico suspended imports from across Brazil.
Chicken that cannot be exported may be sold inside Brazil, adding to supply, particularly in the South.
Brazil’s poultry production has already risen this year, while exports had helped keep some of that extra supply out of the domestic market.
Itaú expects the added supply could put pressure on wholesale prices, especially if restrictions last into early 2027, when consumer demand usually falls.
Lower wholesale prices may not reach supermarket shoppers in full, and the impact will depend on how long importing countries keep their restrictions in place.
Five countries have imposed restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports after a Newcastle disease case was confirmed at a commercial turkey farm in Nova Itaberaba, Santa Catarina.
Itaú BBA says the export curbs could increase chicken supplies in Brazil and put downward pressure on prices, especially in the South.
The effect may be more noticeable in wholesale markets and could intensify in the first quarter of 2027, when consumer demand usually falls.
Malaysia and Mexico suspended imports from all of Brazil, while Saudi Arabia, China and Chile restricted products from Santa Catarina.
The impact on prices will depend in part on how long countries take to resume buying poultry from Santa Catarina.
- Who
- Brazil’s poultry industry and consumers, especially in the South. Five countries have restricted imports.
- What
- Export curbs could leave more chicken available in Brazil and push down prices, particularly in wholesale markets.
- When
- The restrictions were announced after Newcastle disease was confirmed on October 18, 2026. The effect could intensify in the first quarter of 2027.
- Where
- The disease was found at a commercial turkey farm in Nova Itaberaba, Santa Catarina. Price effects could be strongest in southern Brazil.
- Why
- Countries imposed sanitary restrictions after the disease was confirmed. Chicken intended for export could instead be sold in Brazil.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Samples were collected at the commercial farm in Santa Catarina.
Preventive measures were taken at the property after test results.
Newcastle disease was confirmed at the farm in Nova Itaberaba.
Saudi Arabia and Malaysia announced temporary import suspensions, bringing the number of countries taking measures to five.
- Countries with restrictions
- Five: Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, China and Chile
- Disease location
- A commercial turkey farm in Nova Itaberaba, Santa Catarina
- Santa Catarina’s share of Brazilian chicken exports
- More than 20%
- Santa Catarina’s export share of its chicken production
- About 63%
- Brazilian chicken production growth
- Itaú BBA estimates production rose about 6% for 2026