Politics · Spain · 4 hrs ago
Pollster says Sánchez is unlikely to lead Spain’s vote after train crash
GAD3 president Narciso Michavila says voting intentions shifted sharply after the Urda train crash in Spain.
He says it is now unlikely that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will lead the vote in the 29 November general election.
The crash involved a Renfe high-speed train and an Iryo train in Toledo, and the latest official toll cited by GAD3’s president was at least 68 dead.
Before the crash, GAD3 was already projecting a stronger right-wing vote, with the People’s Party ahead and Vox set to double its seats.
Michavila says the shift since the crash has weakened the Socialists, while the People’s Party could improve on its 2023 result.
The election is still four weeks away, and Michavila says the campaign can change voters’ choices.
GAD3 previously predicted a right-wing majority in 2023, but that outcome did not happen.
GAD3 president Narciso Michavila says it is now impossible for Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to lead the vote in the 29 November general election.
Michavila says GAD3 has detected an abrupt shift in voting since a train crash in Urda, Toledo, on Wednesday.
He says the PSOE has lost support, while the People’s Party could improve on its 2023 result.
The crash’s death toll was reported as at least 68 by El Confidencial and 69 by El Mundo.
Michavila cautioned that four weeks remained before the election and that campaigns can influence voters.
- Who
- Narciso Michavila, president of polling firm GAD3, made the assessment about Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE.
- What
- Michavila said Sánchez was now unlikely to be the most-voted candidate and that GAD3 had detected an abrupt shift in voting.
- When
- He made the assessment on Saturday, 31 October 2026, four weeks before the 29 November election.
- Where
- The crash occurred in Urda, Toledo, Spain. Michavila’s comments were posted on X.
- Why
- Michavila said voting had shifted since Wednesday’s train crash. The sources do not state a specific cause for the shift.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
An AVE train operated by Renfe and an Iryo train collided in Urda, Toledo.
GAD3 president Narciso Michavila said his firm was detecting an abrupt change in voting since Wednesday.
Spain is due to hold general elections.
- Election date
- 29 November 2026
- Polling firm
- GAD3
- Pollster
- Narciso Michavila
- Reported crash death toll
- At least 68 in El Confidencial; 69 in El Mundo
- People’s Party 2023 result
- 137 seats
2 sources
What people are saying
Now it is impossible for Sánchez to be the most voted.
We are detecting an abrupt change in voting since Wednesday.
The biggest change in voting happens during the legislature, but campaigns increasingly decide votes.
The growth of Vox is the only thing that ensures there is an alternative to Sánchez.
Posts on X
Estamos detectando un cambio abrupto de voto desde el miércoles. Muchos de los movimientos del 29N estaban ya presentes antes del dramático accidente de tren: - crece mucho la participación. - vuelco a la derecha gracias al voto joven. - Vox duplica escaños, pero no llega al 19%.