Business · Markets · 3 hrs ago
JPMorgan Asset Management Sees Yuan Rising at Least 10% Over the Long Run
JPMorgan Asset Management expects the yuan to gain at least 10% over the long run in inflation-adjusted terms, according to its Asia fixed-income chief, Julio Callegari.
The forecast concerns the Chinese currency and its value against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies.
China’s push to expand the yuan’s use worldwide is continuing, with efforts to improve currency liquidity and create more ways to trade and invest in it.
The yuan has risen almost 5% against the US dollar this year, supported by strong exports and Beijing’s internationalization drive.
JPMorgan sees potential returns from both yuan gains and bond interest, even though Chinese bond yields are relatively low.
Callegari said the firm favors yuan-denominated credit, while holding only a small amount of 30-year Chinese government debt.
The firm expects Beijing to keep widening the yuan’s global role, including by opening more channels for money to move into offshore markets.
JPMorgan Asset Management expects the yuan to appreciate at least 10% over the long run in real effective exchange-rate terms.
Julio Callegari, the firm’s chief investment officer for Asia fixed income, said China’s push to internationalize the yuan is likely to support further gains.
The offshore yuan has risen almost 5% against the US dollar this year, reaching its strongest level since 2022.
Callegari said the firm favors yuan-denominated credit for its yield pickup and potential currency appreciation.
JPMorgan Asset Management sees China’s efforts to expand the yuan’s global use continuing to deepen.
- Who
- JPMorgan Asset Management, represented by Asia fixed-income chief investment officer Julio Callegari.
- What
- The firm expects the yuan to appreciate at least 10% over the long run in real effective exchange-rate terms.
- When
- Callegari discussed the outlook in an interview this week.
- Where
- Callegari spoke in Singapore.
- Why
- The firm expects China’s push to internationalize the yuan and the currency’s steady performance to support further gains.
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Callegari said the firm had trimmed its long yuan positions against the dollar and shifted its focus to higher-yielding currencies.
Callegari said the yuan may appreciate at least 10% over the long run in real effective exchange-rate terms.
The yuan was little changed at around 6.66 per dollar.
- Long-run yuan outlook
- At least 10% appreciation in real effective exchange-rate terms
- Offshore yuan
- Almost 5% higher against the dollar this year
- Recent strength
- Strongest level since 2022
- Callegari’s role
- Chief investment officer for Asia fixed income
- Interview location
- Singapore
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