Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
Bradesco and XP cut Brazil’s 2027 growth forecasts and raise inflation outlook
Bradesco and XP sharply lowered Brazil’s growth outlook and raised their inflation forecasts for 2027.
Bradesco expects the economy to grow by 0.4% in 2027, while XP forecasts 0.3%; both had previously expected 1.0%.
They now project inflation of 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively, up from earlier forecasts of 4.1% and 4.4%.
The revised forecasts follow President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election, with his economic team and fiscal policy for a fourth term still unannounced.
The banks point to tighter financial conditions, weak confidence and slower credit, as well as risks including a weaker real, high oil prices and tax reform.
The outlook signals slower growth and stronger price pressures, affecting households, businesses and economic planning.
Bradesco says fiscal rules need strengthening to anchor expectations; Itaú also recently cut its 2027 growth forecast and raised its inflation outlook.
Bradesco and XP cut their forecasts for Brazil’s 2027 economic growth and raised their inflation outlooks.
Bradesco lowered its 2027 growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.4%, while XP cut its estimate to 0.3%.
Bradesco raised its 2027 inflation forecast from 4.1% to 5.3%, and XP lifted its estimate from 4.4% to 5.5%.
Both institutions cited tighter financial conditions and risks including a weaker currency and tax reform implementation.
The revisions followed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election, with uncertainty about his next economic team and fiscal policy.
- Who
- Bradesco and XP, two financial institutions.
- What
- They cut their forecasts for Brazil’s 2027 economic growth and raised their inflation estimates.
- When
- The reports were published Friday, November 6, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- They cited tighter financial conditions and risks including currency depreciation, tax reform implementation and changes to the workday.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Itaú lowered its 2027 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.2% and raised its inflation forecast to 6.1% from 4.6%.
Bradesco and XP published reports revising their economic forecasts.
- Bradesco 2027 GDP forecast
- 0.4%, down from 1.0%
- XP 2027 GDP forecast
- 0.3%, down from 1.0%
- Bradesco 2027 inflation forecast
- 5.3%, up from 4.1%
- XP 2027 inflation forecast
- 5.5%, up from 4.4%
- Bradesco 2026 GDP forecast
- 1.5%, down from 1.7%
- XP 2026 inflation forecast
- 5.2%, up from 5.1%
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What people are saying
The combination of tighter financial conditions, lower confidence and a slowdown in credit should deepen the economy’s loss of momentum over the coming quarters.
The fiscal framework needs to be strengthened to anchor expectations.
The revision partially incorporates the materialization of risks linked to changes in the workday, oil remaining at high levels, a more depreciated exchange rate and the implementation of tax reform.