Business · Economy · 11 hrs ago
Bank of Russia sees rate path bringing inflation to 4% in 2027
The Bank of Russia raised its projected key rate path for 2027-28 to help bring inflation down.
It expects inflation to return to the 4% target in 2027 and stay anchored there.
Inflation could reach 7.1-7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026, above the bank's earlier estimate of 6-7%.
The bank says elevated inflation expectations and a slow recovery in production capacity are keeping inflation pressures in place.
It believes restrictive policy must curb domestic demand for longer to bring inflation down.
Its forecast for inflation in the fourth quarter of 2027, 2028 and 2029 is 4%.
The Bank of Russia said a higher projected key rate path for 2027-2028 should bring inflation to 4% in 2027.
The bank said inflation should remain sustainably anchored at that target thereafter.
It said elevated inflation expectations require restrictive monetary policy to curb domestic demand for longer.
The regulator said inflation could reach 7.1-7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026, above its earlier estimate of 6-7%.
- Who
- The Bank of Russia.
- What
- It said a higher projected key rate path for 2027-2028 should bring inflation to 4% in 2027.
- When
- The bank’s key rate discussions were summarized on November 5, 2026.
- Where
- Russia.
- Why
- Elevated inflation expectations were increasing inflation persistence, while production capacity was recovering more slowly than expected.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
This story does not have a timeline yet.
- Inflation target
- 4% in 2027
- Projected rate path
- 2027-2028
- Inflation forecast
- 7.1-7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026
- Earlier estimate
- 6-7% in the fourth quarter of 2026
2 sources
What people are saying
Elevated inflation expectations increase inflation persistence, requiring monetary policy to exert a restrictive effect on domestic demand for a longer period.