Health · Medical Research · 5 hrs ago
Cervical cancer deaths projected to rise 39% by 2050
A study of 204 countries and territories projects that cervical cancer cases and deaths will rise worldwide if current trends continue.
By 2050, the researchers estimate there could be about 1.08 million new cases and 522,000 deaths each year.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to face the sharpest rise, with annual deaths projected to reach about 206,000.
In 2023, cervical cancer death rates in low-income countries were more than seven times those in high-income countries, reflecting unequal access to prevention and care.
HPV vaccination, screening and treatment can reduce the risk and help find disease earlier.
The researchers say wider, sustained access to these services is needed, but note that none of the study’s seven world regions is projected to meet the WHO’s elimination threshold by 2050 under current trends; future vaccination programmes could change the outlook.
A study projects that global cervical cancer deaths will rise 39.3% by 2050 compared with 2024 if current trends continue.
Annual diagnoses are projected to increase 20.2%, reaching about 1.08 million cases, while deaths could reach 522,000.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to see the largest increases, with deaths rising 95.4% to about 206,000 a year.
Researchers say unequal access to HPV vaccination, screening and treatment contributes to the burden.
The study estimates that no global superregion will meet the World Health Organization’s cervical cancer elimination threshold by 2050 if current trends persist.
- Who
- Researchers including Natalie Pritchett and Lisa Force produced the study.
- What
- The study projects a 39.3% rise in cervical cancer deaths by 2050 compared with 2024.
- When
- The study was published on November 2, 2026, and projects trends through 2050.
- Where
- The projections cover 204 countries and territories worldwide; the largest increases are expected in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Why
- Current trends and unequal access to HPV vaccination, screening and treatment are expected to sustain the burden.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Researchers examined cervical cancer incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years across 204 countries and territories.
The study’s baseline for projected increases in cases and deaths.
The study projects about 1.08 million new cases and 522,000 deaths worldwide if current trends continue.
- Projected global deaths by 2050
- 522,000 annually
- Projected increase in deaths
- 39.3% compared with 2024
- Projected global cases by 2050
- About 1.08 million annually
- Sub-Saharan Africa deaths by 2050
- About 206,000 annually
- Study coverage
- 204 countries and territories