Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
IMF forecasts Mexico's public debt above 64% of GDP by 2030
The IMF expects Mexico's gross public debt to reach 64.29% of GDP in 2030 and rise to 64.49% in 2031.
Gross debt counts the public sector's unpaid obligations without subtracting its assets.
The 2031 projection would be the highest share in the IMF's data since 1996, with debt rising for an eighth consecutive year from 2024.
Mexico's finance ministry offers a lower forecast, projecting debt will stay at 58.6% of GDP through 2032.
The IMF also expects the economy to grow slowly, averaging 1.7% a year during President Claudia Sheinbaum's term, and says Mexico will not return to the world's 10 largest economies by 2030.
The IMF says stronger private investment is needed to support growth, alongside action on infrastructure gaps, regulation and uncertainty.
The differing forecasts leave a wide gap between the IMF's debt outlook and the government's estimate; the IMF's projections extend through 2031.
The International Monetary Fund projects Mexico’s gross public debt will reach 64.29% of gross domestic product in 2030.
The IMF forecasts the ratio will rise to 64.49% in 2031, its highest level in its series dating to 1996.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry projects a different measure, saying the historical balance of public-sector debt will remain at 58.6% of GDP through 2032.
The IMF estimates Mexico’s gross debt rose from 51.87% of GDP in 2019 to 62.09% in 2026.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund made the debt forecast. Mexico’s Finance Ministry has a lower projection for the historical balance of public-sector debt.
- What
- The IMF projects Mexico’s gross public debt at 64.29% of GDP in 2030 and 64.49% in 2031.
- When
- The forecast was reported on October 14 and 15, 2026.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- The sources attribute the rise partly to a 2024 increase in borrowing linked to completing flagship projects. The IMF says gross debt counts public-sector obligations without subtracting assets.
International Monetary Fund
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
2030–31 projection
International Monetary Fund
Gross debt will reach 64.29% of GDP in 2030 and 64.49% in 2031.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
The historical balance of public-sector debt will remain at 58.6% of GDP through 2032.
Measure
International Monetary Fund
The IMF’s gross-debt measure includes total outstanding public-sector obligations without subtracting assets.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
The ministry’s cited projection is for the historical balance of public-sector debt.
Mexico’s debt rose by 6.26 percentage points of GDP, which the report linked to the government’s need to complete flagship projects.
The IMF estimates Mexico’s gross debt at 62.09% of GDP by year-end.
The IMF projects gross debt at 64.29% of GDP.
The IMF projects gross debt at 64.49% of GDP, the highest share in its series dating to 1996.
- IMF forecast for 2030
- 64.29% of GDP
- IMF forecast for 2031
- 64.49% of GDP
- Finance Ministry projection
- 58.6% of GDP through 2032
- 2024 debt increase
- 6.26 percentage points of GDP
- IMF historical series begins
- 1996