Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Economists lower Brazil's 2026 inflation, growth and dollar forecasts
Economists surveyed by Brazil's Central Bank lowered their forecasts for inflation, growth and the dollar in its weekly Focus survey.
They expect inflation to reach 5.19% by the end of 2026, down from 5.22% a week earlier, while the country's annual inflation target is 3%.
The forecast for economic growth in 2026 fell from 1.83% to 1.80%, and the expected dollar rate dropped from 5.13 to 5.05 reais.
The survey's estimates were collected before the election result, so they do not reflect market expectations after that outcome.
Inflation affects how much people can buy, while growth forecasts indicate how quickly the economy is expected to expand.
The Central Bank survey also kept the forecast for the Selic policy rate at 13.25% at the end of 2026, with economists expecting two quarter-point cuts before year-end.
The Central Bank’s Focus survey showed lower forecasts for Brazil’s 2026 inflation, economic growth and dollar exchange rate.
The inflation forecast fell to 5.19%, while the GDP growth estimate declined to 1.80%.
The dollar forecast for the end of 2026 fell to R$5.05.
The Selic rate forecast for the end of 2026 remained at 13.25%, while the 2027 estimate fell to 11.75%.
The survey was completed before the second-round election in which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected.
- Who
- Economists and financial institutions surveyed for the Central Bank’s Focus bulletin.
- What
- They lowered their forecasts for 2026 inflation, GDP growth and the dollar exchange rate.
- When
- The bulletin was released on October 26, 2026, based on a survey completed the previous week.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Not stated.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The Focus survey was completed, before the second-round election, according to Folha de S.Paulo.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election in the second round, according to Folha de S.Paulo.
The Central Bank released the Focus bulletin with revised economic forecasts.
- 2026 inflation forecast
- 5.19%, down from 5.22%
- 2026 GDP growth forecast
- 1.80%, down from 1.83%
- 2026 dollar forecast
- R$5.05, down from R$5.13
- 2026 Selic forecast
- 13.25% per year, unchanged
- 2027 Selic forecast
- 11.75% per year, down from 12%
- Survey size
- More than 100 financial institutions, according to G1