Politics · Brazil · 6 hrs ago
Poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro lead over Lula among middle-income voters
A Datafolha poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva among middle-income voters in a possible 2026 presidential runoff in Brazil.
Among people whose household earns two to five minimum wages, Bolsonaro has 55% support and Lula 40%.
Bolsonaro also leads in the Southeast, while Lula has a large advantage in the Northeast and among voters earning up to two minimum wages.
Across Brazil, the poll gives Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 45% of all responses, including undecided voters and those planning to cast blank or invalid ballots.
Among valid votes, the candidates are tied within the poll’s margin of error, at 51% for Bolsonaro and 49% for Lula.
Their rejection levels are also close: 46% say they would never vote for Lula, compared with 44% for Bolsonaro.
The poll shows a close national race, but does not say what either candidate will do next.
A Datafolha poll found Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by 15 percentage points among voters in households earning two to five minimum wages.
In that income group, Flávio had 55% of voting intentions and Lula had 40%.
Nationally, the candidates were technically tied in a projected runoff, with 51% and 49% of valid votes, respectively.
Flávio also led Lula in the Southeast, while Lula led in the Northeast and among voters earning up to two minimum wages.
The poll was released on October 15, 2026.
- Who
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- A Datafolha poll found Flávio leading Lula by 15 points among voters earning two to five minimum wages.
- When
- The poll was released on October 15, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil; the reported income group represents 37% of the poll participants.
- Why
- The poll measured voting intentions in a simulated second round of the 2026 presidential election.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
A previous poll showed Flávio with 52% and Lula with 48% of valid votes nationally.
Datafolha released a new poll showing Flávio with 51% and Lula with 49% of valid votes nationally.
- Income group
- Two to five minimum wages
- Voting intentions in that group
- Flávio Bolsonaro 55%; Lula 40%
- Share of poll participants in that group
- 37%
- National valid votes
- Flávio Bolsonaro 51%; Lula 49%
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points