Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Turkey’s central bank expected to cut interest rate, but forecasts differ
Turkey’s central bank is due to announce its rate decision after its policy meeting on 22 October.
The bank left its key rate at 37% in September, and it has kept that rate unchanged since January.
Most economists in surveys expect a 100-basis-point cut to 36%, as annual inflation has fallen below 30%.
Some analysts expect the bank to keep the rate at 37%, citing inflation risks and concerns about financial stability.
The decision matters because interest rates affect borrowing costs, business activity and efforts to control inflation.
A cut could signal that the bank sees room to continue easing if inflation falls, while holding rates steady would point to greater caution.
The bank is scheduled to announce its decision at 14:00 local time.
Turkey’s central bank was expected to announce its October interest-rate decision after a policy meeting on 22 October.
Most economists and several international banks expected a 100-basis-point cut, which would lower the policy rate from 37% to 36%.
Some forecasts differed, with Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale expecting the rate to remain unchanged.
Analysts cited falling inflation as support for a cut, while inflation risks, financial stability concerns and fund-related developments could argue for caution.
- Who
- Turkey’s central bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- What
- It was expected to announce its October policy-rate decision. Most forecasts pointed to a 100-basis-point cut.
- When
- 22 October 2026, with the decision due at 14:00.
- Where
- Turkey.
- Why
- The decision was being watched amid lower inflation and differing views about inflation risks and financial stability.
Rate-cut forecasters
Rate-hold forecasters
Policy decision
Rate-cut forecasters
Most economists and several banks expected a 100-basis-point cut, to 36%.
Rate-hold forecasters
Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale expected the rate to remain at 37%.
Reasoning
Rate-cut forecasters
Lower inflation and economic conditions were cited as support for easing.
Rate-hold forecasters
Inflation expectations, reserve losses and financial stability risks were cited as reasons for caution.
JPMorgan’s analysis forecast a 100-basis-point cut, while Societe Generale also issued its rate outlook.
The central bank was scheduled to hold its policy meeting and announce its decision at 14:00.
- Previous policy rate
- 37%
- Most common forecast
- Cut of 100 basis points, to 36%
- AA Finans survey
- 20 economists; 19 expected a 100-basis-point cut and one expected a 200-basis-point cut
- BloombergHT survey
- 15 of 17 participants expected a 100-basis-point cut
- Decision time
- 14:00 on 22 October 2026