Politics · Australia · 5 hrs ago
Treasury actuary questions Australia’s $38.2 billion NDIS savings plan
Australia’s Treasury chief actuary questioned a $38.2 billion NDIS savings plan over four years.
The National Disability Insurance Scheme supports people with disabilities, and the plan is part of a government effort to reduce its costs.
Guy Thorburn said he had not received enough detail to judge whether the projected costs after the reforms were a reliable estimate.
He identified risks including inflation, wage adjustments and possible underestimates of residential aged-care costs.
The government aims to bring annual scheme costs down to $55 billion by 2030 and remove 160,000 participants from the programme.
The plan depends on states setting up alternative support programmes, including the Thriving Kids initiative, due to be fully operating by January 1, 2028.
The actuary’s warning leaves the proposed savings in doubt ahead of a budget update where the government faces pressure to reduce spending.
Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn said he lacked enough information to assess whether the government can save $38.2 billion from the National Disability Insurance Scheme over four years.
The National Disability Insurance Agency has not convinced Treasury’s top actuary that the savings are achievable.
The proposed overhaul aims to reduce annual scheme costs to $55 billion by 2030 and remove 160,000 participants.
The plan relies on state governments establishing alternative support programmes, including the Thriving Kids initiative.
- Who
- Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn questioned the plan. The National Disability Insurance Agency is responsible for the scheme.
- What
- Thorburn said there was not enough information to assess the proposed $38.2 billion in savings over four years.
- When
- The articles were published on November 2, 2026; the AFR article was updated on November 3.
- Where
- Australia.
- Why
- Thorburn said he had not received enough detail to judge whether the post-reform projection was a best estimate of scheme costs.
Government and National Disability Insurance Agency
Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn
Savings plan
Government and National Disability Insurance Agency
The government aims to cut $38.2 billion in scheme costs over four years.
Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn
Thorburn said he lacked enough information to assess whether the proposed savings were achievable.
Assessment of projected costs
Government and National Disability Insurance Agency
The plan aims to reduce annual scheme costs to $55 billion by 2030.
Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn
Thorburn said he could not judge whether the post-reform projection was a best estimate of scheme costs.
The articles reported that Treasury Chief Actuary Guy Thorburn questioned whether the NDIS savings plan was achievable.
The Thriving Kids initiative is scheduled to be in full operation.
The government aims to reduce annual scheme costs to $55 billion.
- Proposed savings
- $38.2 billion over four years
- Target annual scheme costs
- $55 billion by 2030
- Proposed participant reduction
- 160,000
- Thriving Kids full operation
- January 1, 2028
- Actuary
- Guy Thorburn
2 sources
What people are saying
At the time of writing, I have not yet been provided with sufficient detail to allow me to comment on whether the post-reform projection represents a best estimate of scheme costs.