Business · Markets · 1 hr ago
US midterm result may support Türkiye’s markets
The Democrats’ midterm victory lifted global markets, as investors bought stocks and prices for oil and the US dollar fell.
Gold and silver rose, while bond yields eased, analyst Zeynel Balcı said.
Balcı said a calmer region could benefit Türkiye, which is close to Iran and could be affected by changes in regional tensions.
Lower oil prices could also ease Türkiye’s inflation pressures and slow the widening of its current account deficit, he said.
The market reaction may support Borsa Istanbul, which had fallen sharply amid a fund investigation, but Balcı called it an initial response whose staying power depends partly on US policy and US-Iran relations.
Analysts disagree on a December rate cut: ING expects the Turkish Central Bank to continue cutting rates, while BBVA Research expects rates to stay unchanged, though it says a cut is possible if energy pressures ease and reserves stabilize.
The bank’s next rate decision is due on Dec.
10.
The Democrats’ victory in the U.S. midterm elections was followed by buying across global stock markets, analyst Zeynel Balcı said.
Balcı said lower oil prices and a weaker dollar could benefit Türkiye by easing inflationary pressures and slowing the widening of its current account deficit.
He said a calmer geopolitical environment could be especially positive for Türkiye because of its proximity to Iran.
Balcı said the market moves were an initial reaction, and their staying power would depend largely on President Donald Trump’s stance and U.S.-Iran relations.
ING expects Türkiye’s central bank to cut rates in December, while BBVA Research expects rates to remain unchanged.
- Who
- Democrats and global investors, with analyst Zeynel Balcı assessing possible effects on Türkiye.
- What
- The U.S. midterm result may support Türkiye’s markets and influence expectations for a Turkish rate cut.
- When
- After the U.S. midterm elections; the Turkish Central Bank’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 10.
- Where
- Global markets, including Türkiye’s Borsa Istanbul.
- Why
- Balcı pointed to lower oil prices, a weaker dollar and the prospect of a calmer geopolitical environment.
ING
BBVA Research
December rate decision
ING
ING expects the Turkish Central Bank to continue its rate-cutting cycle in December.
BBVA Research
BBVA Research expects the bank to leave rates unchanged, citing elevated energy prices and pressure on reserves.
Buying across global stock markets followed the Democrats’ victory, while oil prices, the dollar and bond yields declined.
Gold and silver prices rose, and Balcı said optimism in global markets supported a rebound in Borsa Istanbul.
- Election result
- Democrats won a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections.
- Turkish Central Bank meeting
- Dec. 10
- ING forecast
- The bank was likely to continue cutting rates in December.
- BBVA Research forecast
- Rates would remain unchanged at the December meeting.
- BBVA Research possible cut
- 100 basis points if energy price pressures ease and reserve conditions stabilize.
What people are saying
A calmer region will benefit everyone, but it will be even more positive for Türkiye given its proximity to Iran.
In short, it would be appropriate at this stage to view the post-election market movements as an initial reaction
In our view, October inflation is unlikely to be a game changer here
Nevertheless, should energy price pressures ease and reserve conditions stabilize, a 100bp rate cut, broadly in line with market consensus, cannot be ruled out