Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
Brazil central bank holds Selic rate at 13.75% as inflation forecasts rise
Brazil’s central bank kept its Selic interest rate at 13.75% a year on Wednesday, Nov.
4.
The decision was made by the bank’s monetary policy committee, known as Copom.
The bank raised its inflation forecast to 5.6% for 2026 and 4.7% for 2027, up from 5.2% and 3.9%.
It also expects inflation of 3.5% in the second quarter of 2028, above its previous forecast of 3.2% for early that year.
Brazil’s inflation target is 3%, and market forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have moved further from that goal since September.
The bank cited greater uncertainty, higher inflation expectations and a sharper economic slowdown as challenges for setting interest rates.
Copom did not signal its next rate move, saying it would keep watching conditions and aim to bring inflation back to target.
Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark Selic rate at 13.75% a year, pausing a sequence of five cuts.
The Copom’s decision was unanimous and came amid rising inflation expectations and greater uncertainty.
The central bank said the outlook was challenging, with domestic activity slowing and inflation expectations above the target.
The decision surprised markets, which had expected a cut of 0.25 percentage points, according to UOL.
The bank raised its inflation projections for 2026, 2027 and the second quarter of 2028, Estadão reported.
- Who
- Brazil’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
- What
- It unanimously kept the Selic rate at 13.75% a year, pausing its easing cycle.
- When
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Inflation expectations and uncertainty had risen, while the outlook included slower activity and risks to inflation.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The Selic rate remained at 15% a year, according to UOL.
The Copom made five rate cuts before keeping the Selic at 13.75% on November 4.
The Copom unanimously held the rate and said uncertainty and inflation expectations had increased.
- Selic rate
- 13.75% a year
- Decision
- Unanimous hold by the Copom
- Expected market move
- A cut of 0.25 percentage points
- Inflation projection for 2026
- Raised from 5.2% to 5.6%
- Inflation projection for 2027
- Raised from 3.9% to 4.7%
- Inflation projection for second quarter of 2028
- Raised from 3.2% to 3.5%
10 sources
Futuro da Selic depende do governo Lula após Copom manter taxa em 13,75%, dizem analistas
Decisão do Copom vem da incerteza das contas públicas, diz Rafaela Vitória
Après la réélection de Lula, la fin d'un cycle de baisse du taux directeur au Brésil
O que a Selic em 13,75% significa para o crédito, o consumo e a inflação
Banco Central não se dobra a pressões políticas e mantém juros com piora do cenário para a inflação
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Brasil continua com o maior juro real do mundo após Copom manter Selic em 13,75%; veja ranking
What people are saying
O contexto atual, caracterizado por taxa Selic substancialmente contracionista, aumento significativo das incertezas em torno do cenário base, expectativas de inflação mais elevadas, e desaceleração da atividade econômica doméstica mais acentuada, apresenta um cenário desafiador para a política monetária, demandando serenidade e cautela na sua condução
O Banco Central foi menos explícito em apontar o dedo para a política fiscal