Politics · Brazil · 2 hrs ago
Lula needs 1.2 million votes to close gap with Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two points in a Datafolha poll published on October 15, with 10 days until the election.
The analysis estimates that Lula would need to gain at least 1.2 million votes from Flávio to have a chance of winning, assuming turnout and other voting patterns stay unchanged.
Lula’s government has recently approved changes to working hours and benefits for small businesses, with a Bolsa Família increase due to start on October 19.
Those measures may not yet have influenced the poll, and voters’ views of them could depend on whether they seem useful or opportunistic.
Security, health and the cost of living are major voter concerns, while Lula faces greater rejection in the poll than Flávio.
The analysis says Lula has lost support among poor voters, people in the Northeast and residents of small towns, while Flávio has an advantage on security.
Two debates remain before the vote, and the analysis says a poor performance could prove decisive.
Lula needs to gain at least 1.2 million votes from Flávio Bolsonaro in ten days to have a chance of winning, Folha says.
A Datafolha poll released on Thursday put Flávio two percentage points ahead of Lula.
The estimate assumes that blank and spoiled ballots and abstentions remain at first-round levels, and that Lula does not lose votes.
Two debates remain before the election, and Folha says a poor performance could be decisive.
Folha identifies security, the cost of living and voter rejection of Lula as challenges for his campaign.
- Who
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are the candidates discussed.
- What
- Lula needs to gain at least 1.2 million votes from Flávio to have a chance of winning.
- When
- The article was published on October 16, 2026, and says the election is in ten days.
- Where
- Not stated
- Why
- A Datafolha poll put Flávio two percentage points ahead; the estimate assumes abstentions and blank and spoiled ballots stay at first-round levels and Lula does not lose votes.
Lula's campaign
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Electoral position
Lula's campaign
Lula needs to gain at least 1.2 million votes to have a chance of winning.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Flávio is two percentage points ahead in the cited Datafolha poll.
Campaign factors
Lula's campaign
Lula's recent measures may not yet have reached voters, and his rejection rating is 46%.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
Flávio may benefit from voter concerns about security and the cost of living, which Folha says are major issues.
The end of the 6x1 work schedule was approved, along with benefits for microentrepreneurs.
Datafolha released a poll showing Flávio two percentage points ahead of Lula.
An increase in Bolsa Família payments is due to begin.
Two debates are scheduled to take place.
- Votes to gain
- At least 1.2 million
- Poll gap
- Flávio leads Lula by 2 percentage points
- Lula rejection rating
- 46%
- Flávio rejection rating
- 44%
- Bolsa Família increase
- Due to begin on October 19