Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 37 mins ago
A 1960 population study’s ‘Doomsday’ prediction did not come true
A 1960 study predicted a population-driven Doomsday for November 13, 2026, saying the number of people would approach infinity if past growth continued.
Austrian American physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues at the University of Illinois based the prediction on population estimates spanning nearly 2,000 years.
Their formula extended a period of accelerating growth into the future, but the world’s population did not grow as fast as it predicted.
The global growth rate peaked in the 1960s and has since fallen, while birth rates have declined in many countries.
The prediction matters as a warning about the limits of using past social trends to forecast what comes next.
Today, declining fertility is a growing concern in some places because it can strain economies and healthcare systems, although rapid growth remains a concern in some poorer countries.
UN forecasts suggest the population will peak at about 10.3 billion in 2084 and then decline.
A 1960 study projected that the world’s population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026, but that prediction did not come to pass.
The researchers extended past population growth trends into the future, describing the date as “Doomsday.”
Global population growth slowed after reaching its peak in the 1960s, and birth rates have since fallen.
The United Nations projects the world’s population will peak at about 10.3 billion in 2084 before declining.
Experts say long-term population change is difficult to predict because fertility responds to social forces.
- Who
- Physicist Heinz von Foerster and his co-authors, Patricia M Mora and Lawrence W Amiot, wrote the 1960 study.
- What
- The study projected that population growth would make the world’s population approach infinity on November 13, 2026. The prediction failed as growth slowed.
- When
- The paper was published in 1960 and named November 13, 2026, as its predicted doomsday.
- Where
- The study was published in the journal Science. Its prediction concerned the world’s population.
- Why
- The authors extrapolated historical population trends, finding that the time needed for the population to double had shortened.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Heinz von Foerster and colleagues published their population-growth study in Science.
The global population growth rate reached a peak of about 2.3 per cent, according to ABC Australia.
The study’s predicted doomsday date arrived, but the world’s population had not approached infinity.
United Nations forecasts cited by Independent project that the world’s population will peak at around 10.3 billion before declining.
- Study publication
- 1960
- Journal
- Science
- Predicted date
- November 13, 2026
- Population growth peak
- About 2.3 per cent in 1963
- Projected population peak
- Around 10.3 billion in 2084
4 sources
A 1960 study predicted the world will end today. Here’s why
Formeln aus den 1960ern: Warum Forscher den Weltuntergang auf den 13.11.2026 datierten
Despite a 1960 doomsday prediction, the world won't end today
Scientists predicted 'Doomsday' for tomorrow in 1960 study warning of a future where humanity 'annihilates itself'
What people are saying
I don't think they were completely serious. They were trying to make a point that this is exceptional
It is not possible to predict fertility with any degree of accuracy beyond about 10 years into the future
Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.
Our current trajectory is unsustainable