Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
HR Ratings cuts Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating to BBB
HR Ratings lowered Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating to BBB from BBB+ on October 15.
The agency kept its short-term rating at HR3 with a stable outlook, according to Mexico’s Finance Ministry.
Mexico remains investment grade with all eight rating agencies, the ministry said.
It pointed to economic growth, rising exports and foreign investment as signs of resilience.
International reserves exceed $256 billion, and Mexico also has access to a $24 billion credit line from the International Monetary Fund to help handle external shocks.
The government’s 2027 economic package is before Congress, with plans to raise tax revenue and improve spending; the ministry says its broader fiscal strategy aims to strengthen public finances.
HR Ratings cut Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating to BBB from BBB+, citing fiscal deterioration, low growth and rising public debt pressures.
The agency kept its stable outlook and affirmed the short-term rating at HR3 (G).
HR Ratings estimates Mexico’s public-sector borrowing requirements will reach a deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2026, marking five consecutive years above 4%.
It projects public debt at 54.5% of GDP at the end of 2026, rising to 61.2% in 2030.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry defended its fiscal measures and said the country retains investment grade from all eight agencies that assess its sovereign debt.
- Who
- HR Ratings cut Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating. Mexico’s Finance Ministry defended the country’s fiscal position.
- What
- The rating fell to BBB from BBB+, with a stable outlook; the short-term rating remained HR3 (G).
- When
- October 15, 2026.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- HR Ratings cited deteriorating fiscal balances, low economic growth and increased public debt pressures.
HR Ratings
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
Fiscal outlook
HR Ratings
Fiscal imbalances are likely to persist because spending is rigid and growing faster than revenue.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
Fiscal consolidation should be assessed over the medium term, and Mexico made a 1.3-percentage-point-of-GDP adjustment in 2025.
Rating and resilience
HR Ratings
Efforts to contain the deficit have not sufficiently reduced public financing needs.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry
Mexico retains investment grade with all eight agencies that evaluate its sovereign debt, according to the ministry.
Mexico carried out a fiscal adjustment equivalent to 1.3 percentage points of GDP, according to the Finance Ministry.
HR Ratings cut Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating to BBB from BBB+ and kept its outlook stable.
HR Ratings projected a public-sector borrowing-requirements deficit of 4.6% of GDP and public debt of 54.5% of GDP.
- Long-term rating
- BBB, down from BBB+
- Outlook
- Stable
- Short-term rating
- HR3 (G), affirmed
- 2026 borrowing-requirements deficit forecast
- 4.6% of GDP
- 2026 public debt forecast
- 54.5% of GDP
- 2030 public debt forecast
- 61.2% of GDP
4 sources
HR Ratings recorta calificación de deuda de largo plazo de México por deterioro fiscal
HT Ratings baja el puntaje soberano de México mientras Hacienda defiende que el país mantiene una perspectiva estable
HR Ratings revisa a la baja la calificación soberana de México; mantiene perspectiva estable
HR Ratings baja la calificación de largo plazo de México por deterioro fiscal y menor crecimiento
What people are saying
A growth rate above 2.5% annually would help mitigate spending pressures and reduce the imbalances of the Federal Government.
Fiscal consolidation must be evaluated by its medium-term trajectory and not only by the results of one fiscal year.