Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 3 hrs ago
NOAA forecasts a warmer, wetter US winter shaped by strong El Niño
NOAA expects a warmer, wetter-than-average winter across much of the United States from December through February.
The outlook is strongly influenced by a powerful El Niño, a natural warming of Pacific Ocean waters that can shift the paths of storms.
Forecasters expect more precipitation in much of the South and along the East Coast, while parts of the West may also see heavy rain and mountain snow.
The seasonal outlook does not predict snowfall totals, which are generally forecast reliably only about a week ahead.
Forecasts differ on snow in the North: some expect below-average amounts, while others say the winter may not be less snowy overall.
More rain could ease drought in parts of the South and West, though wetter conditions can also bring flooding and powerful storms.
Local weather forecasts will offer clearer guidance as winter storms approach.
NOAA’s winter outlook says a strong El Niño will bring warmer-than-average conditions to much of the United States and wetter-than-average conditions across the South and East Coast.
The three-month forecast covers December through February.
Forecasters say snowfall remains uncertain because it depends on whether cold air arrives when storms do.
The outlook points to possible drought relief in parts of the South and Southwest, while some northern areas could become drier.
- Who
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued the outlook. Meteorologists also discussed its implications.
- What
- NOAA forecasts a generally warmer and wetter US winter shaped by a strong El Niño. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain.
- When
- NOAA released the outlook on Thursday, October 15, 2026. It covers December through February.
- Where
- The forecast covers the United States, with wetter conditions expected across much of the South and East Coast.
- Why
- El Niño is expected to influence storm tracks and weather patterns, bringing more moisture and higher temperatures to many areas.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
NOAA released its three-month winter outlook for December through February.
The current El Niño is expected to peak in intensity.
NOAA’s outlook period covers the winter season.
- Outlook period
- December-February
- El Niño
- Strong; described by CNN as near-record strong
- Expected temperatures
- Warmer than average across much of the United States
- Expected precipitation
- Wetter than average across the southern United States and up the East Coast
- Snowfall
- Seasonal snowfall totals were not forecast; snowfall is accurately forecast only within about a week of an event
5 sources
Long Island, East Coast could be in for a wetter — but warmer — winter, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects
What El Niño could mean for Louisiana's winter weather
US winter weather outlook: What will El Niño bring?
US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say, with more snow in the south
A super El Niño winter is coming and the first official forecast is in
What people are saying
It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the east coast cities
These storms could be very strong
Overall, I don’t see this being a blockbuster year
We expect it to be a wetter winter, but whether that’s big snowstorms or tilting more towards rain, that’s harder to say