Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 5 hrs ago
Severe El Niño could cause $11 trillion in global income losses
IFAD estimates a severe El Niño could cost countries $11 trillion in income over the next five to six years.
The warning was presented at COP31 by IFAD and Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
El Niño is a climate pattern declared when temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise above their long-term average.
Forecasts suggest it could continue through spring 2027, and the report says the estimated losses could rise further.
Small-scale farmers, who produce a third of the world’s food, are especially exposed to climate and economic shocks that raise costs and cut production.
Connecting finance, farm inputs and market access can reduce losses: IFAD modelling found that combining these forms of support could cut farm income losses by almost 19%.
The report points to projects in Kenya and Bangladesh as examples of support that helped farmers, and says stronger resilience depends on linking investments rather than relying on single interventions.
IFAD estimates that a severe El Niño could cause $11 trillion in lost country income worldwide over the next five to six years.
A report launched at COP31 says El Niño adds to overlapping economic and climate shocks affecting small-scale agriculture and food producers.
Forecasts suggest El Niño could persist through spring 2027, and the report warns that projected losses could rise further.
The report says targeted financial support, combined with farm inputs and market access, can reduce income losses.
- Who
- The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) estimates the losses. The report was launched by IFAD and Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
- What
- A severe El Niño could cause $11 trillion in lost country income over the next five to six years.
- When
- The estimate covers the next five to six years. Forecasts suggest El Niño could continue through spring 2027.
- Where
- Across the globe.
- Why
- El Niño could compound economic and climate-driven shocks affecting agriculture and food producers.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Global energy and fertilizer shocks raised costs across the food system, according to the report.
IFAD and Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry launched the report.
Forecasts suggest El Niño could remain in place.
- Estimated losses
- $11 trillion in country income
- Projection period
- The next five to six years
- Forecast duration
- El Niño could remain through spring 2027
- Farmers affected
- Small-scale farmers produce a third of the world’s food
- Financial support
- Targeted support can reduce farm losses by almost 10%
What people are saying
This report makes an important argument based on evidence from our IFAD investments: resilience is not built by investing in single interventions, but by connecting investments in inputs, markets and finance so that gains in one area are not lost in another
Where we have invested in these pillars together, the results are transformational: incomes have increased more than 40%, nearly all households report gains, and technology adoption is up by three-quarters