Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 14 hrs ago
A 1960 population model named November 13, 2026, as doomsday
In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot published a population study in the journal Science.
Their model projected a population limit on November 13, 2026 by extending past growth trends into the future.
The date marked a mathematical limit, not a claim that the population could literally become infinite.
The model tracked population growth fairly well for decades, but around 1993 the real population began to grow more slowly than its curve predicted.
Falling birth rates helped explain the shift, as health and nutrition improvements had earlier reduced deaths and boosted population growth.
Many countries now face falling birth rates and ageing populations, rather than the unchecked population surge that worried people in the mid-20th century.
November 13, 2026, is expected to be an ordinary day, and the old model is a reminder that past trends do not always continue.
A 1960 model projected that the world’s population would approach a mathematical limit on November 13, 2026.
The model was developed by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot using 24 estimates of world population.
The researchers argued that human cooperation could help population growth accelerate rather than slow as it did in other species.
The prediction did not mean the population could literally become infinite, and it did not come true.
Population growth began to fall below the model’s projections around 1993 as fertility rates declined.
- Who
- Physicist Heinz von Foerster and his students Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot developed the model.
- What
- Their model projected that world population would approach a mathematical limit on November 13, 2026.
- When
- The study was published on November 4, 1960. It named November 13, 2026, as the projected date.
- Where
- In the journal Science.
- Why
- The researchers projected past population growth into the future, arguing that human cooperation could accelerate it. The model assumed that the observed pattern would continue.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Science published the researchers’ population model.
The model’s equations were cited in textbooks and political discussions.
World population began growing below the rate projected by the model.
The model’s projected date for population to approach its mathematical limit.
- Study publication
- November 4, 1960
- Researchers
- Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot
- Data used
- 24 estimates of world population
- Projected date
- November 13, 2026
- Model began diverging
- Around 1993
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What people are saying
Nossos descendentes não morrerão de fome; serão esmagados até a morte