Business · Economy · 4 hrs ago
Canada’s housing correction is concentrated in Ontario and B.C
Canada’s benchmark home price fell to $651,400 in September, its lowest level since February 2021.
That was 22.5% below the national peak in March 2022, and the housing correction is still under way.
Ontario and B.C. account for the deepest declines: Ontario prices are 26.7% below their peak, while B.C. prices are down 16.7%.
Both provinces have also lost the gains made during a rebound in 2023.
The picture is different elsewhere: Quebec prices were up 1.1% from a year earlier, and Alberta was 3.6% below its peak.
Rising mortgage costs are adding pressure, as some homeowners renewing low-rate mortgages sell their homes.
One market observer expects prices in Ontario and B.C. to fall further next year, while other forecasts point to growth in Ontario in 2027.
A sustained narrowing of annual price declines would be an early sign of a bottom, but the story gives no firm date for when that may happen.
Canada’s housing correction is now concentrated mainly in Ontario and British Columbia, according to an analysis by Hanif Bayat.
The national benchmark home price was $651,400 in September, 22.5 per cent below its March 2022 peak.
Ontario’s benchmark price was down 26.7 per cent from its peak, while British Columbia’s was down 16.7 per cent.
Bayat expects prices in Ontario and B.C. to remain flat or fall next year, possibly reaching a bottom.
Ali Salarian and Desjardins economist Kari Norman expect prices to improve or rise in 2027.
- Who
- Canadian home buyers and sellers, with the correction focused on Ontario and British Columbia.
- What
- Home prices remain below their peaks, particularly in Ontario and B.C., and forecasts differ on what happens next.
- When
- The figures are for September; the article was published on October 27, 2026.
- Where
- Canada, especially Ontario and British Columbia.
- Why
- The article points to rising mortgage rates and renewals at higher rates as pressures on the market.
Hanif Bayat
Ali Salarian and Kari Norman
Price outlook
Hanif Bayat
Bayat expects prices in Ontario and B.C. not to rise next year and says they will most probably fall.
Ali Salarian and Kari Norman
Salarian expects gradual growth in 2027 after the current listing wave clears; Norman expects Ontario’s average home price to rise 2.4 per cent in 2027.
The national benchmark home price reached its peak.
A rebound in Ontario and B.C. was later erased, according to the article.
The national benchmark home price fell to $651,400, its lowest level since February 2021.
Salarian expects gradual growth after the current listing wave clears.
- National benchmark price
- $651,400 in September
- National price decline
- 22.5 per cent below the March 2022 peak
- Ontario benchmark price
- $736,300, down 26.7 per cent from its peak
- British Columbia price decline
- 16.7 per cent below its peak
- Ontario 2027 forecast
- Desjardins economist Kari Norman expects the average home price to rise 2.4 per cent
What people are saying
Once this listing wave clears, expect gradual growth in 2027.