Politics · Spain · 6 hrs ago
Adif forecasts worsening rail reliability and maintenance through 2030
Spain’s rail infrastructure manager Adif expects reliability to worsen through 2030, according to agreements approved with the government.
Adif is split into two companies, one responsible for high-speed rail and the other for the conventional network.
Adif forecasts 8,799 infrastructure-related disruptions in 2030, up 20% from the 7,355 expected for 2025.
The agreements also project that both companies will miss their preventive maintenance targets every year through 2030.
For conventional rail, maintenance target performance is expected to reach no more than 90%; for high-speed rail, it is forecast to remain below 96% by 2030.
Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo criticised the forecasts, saying they point to a decline in infrastructure and service quality.
The outlook matters as accidents at Adamuz and Urda are under investigation, and the agreements set out expectations through 2030.
Adif forecasts that rail infrastructure reliability will worsen through 2030, with more incidents affecting train traffic.
The state-owned infrastructure manager expects 8,799 such incidents in 2030, up 20% from the 7,355 forecast for 2025.
Adif and Adif-Alta Velocidad expect to miss their preventive track-maintenance targets every year through 2030.
The forecasts in agreements with Spain’s central government have drawn strong criticism from Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo.
The agreements also project lower preventive-maintenance compliance for high-speed rail, despite the network meeting at least 99% of plans in each of the previous four years.
- Who
- Adif and Adif-Alta Velocidad, Spain’s rail infrastructure managers. Rail operators Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo have criticised the forecasts.
- What
- Adif forecasts worsening infrastructure reliability and failure to meet preventive-maintenance targets through 2030.
- When
- The agreements cover forecasts through 2030 and were approved on the day before the article was published on 4 November 2026.
- Where
- Spain’s railway network, including conventional and high-speed lines.
- Why
- The agreements set out Adif’s forecasts for infrastructure reliability and maintenance. The sources do not state why the expected deterioration is forecast.
Adif
Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo
Forecasts
Adif
The agreements project worsening reliability and maintenance performance through 2030.
Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo
The operators argue that the agreements accept or normalise a deterioration in rail service rather than improving it.
Performance measures
Adif
Adif’s agreements include forecasts and targets for reliability and maintenance.
Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo
Ouigo says the agreement lacks a baseline, an annual path for reducing unit costs and indicators to measure efficiency.
Adif reached an agreement with workers, which the article says did not prevent high-speed preventive-maintenance compliance from falling below the previous level.
Adif’s two agreements with Spain’s central government were approved.
Pedro Marco de la Peña presented his resignation hours after approving the agreements.
El Mundo published its report on the forecasts and operators’ objections.
- Infrastructure-related incidents
- 8,799 forecast for 2030
- 2025 incident forecast
- 7,355
- Change in incident forecast
- 20% increase from 2025 to 2030
- Conventional network maintenance
- Compliance will not exceed 90%
- High-speed maintenance
- Compliance will not exceed 96% through 2030
What people are saying
Se observa un empeoramiento generalizado de los indicadores y objetivos de prestación del servicio
En términos prácticos, el convenio normaliza un deterioro extraordinario de la calidad del servicio: admite para 2026 una impuntualidad más de nueve veces superior al objetivo fijado para 2025 y pospone hasta 2030 un objetivo que, además, sigue siendo menos exigente que el original
no se define una línea de base, una senda anual de reducción del coste unitario ni indicadores que permitan medir la eficiencia alcanzada