Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 4 hrs ago
UN says 2026 is on track to be among four hottest years
The World Meteorological Organization says 2026 is on track to be one of the four hottest years recorded.
A separate US research group, Berkeley Earth, is more certain: it says there is a 95% chance this year will beat the previous record set in 2024.
From January to September, the global average temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, and a strong El Niño could push it higher.
The WMO says each of the past 12 years has ranked among the 12 warmest since records began around 1850, as greenhouse gases trap more heat.
That warming is reflected in rising ocean temperatures, melting ice and record global sea levels.
World leaders and negotiators are meeting in Turkey for the latest UN climate summit, where the WMO data will inform discussions.
The agency says El Niño will continue into 2027, adding to the heat.
The World Meteorological Organization says 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record.
Global average temperature from January to September was 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.
The WMO says a powerful El Niño could push temperatures higher through the end of 2026 and into 2027.
Berkeley Earth separately said it was 95% confident 2026 would surpass the previous annual record set in 2024.
- Who
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the report; Berkeley Earth made a separate forecast.
- What
- The WMO says 2026 is on track to be among the four warmest years on record. Berkeley Earth predicts it will be the hottest year on record.
- When
- The report was published on November 9, 2026; its temperature figure covers January to September.
- Where
- Globally.
- Why
- Warming from greenhouse gases and a powerful El Niño are raising temperatures.
World Meteorological Organization
Berkeley Earth
2026 temperature outlook
World Meteorological Organization
The WMO says 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record.
Berkeley Earth
Berkeley Earth said it was 95% confident 2026 would surpass the previous record set in 2024.
The prevailing El Niño had been intensifying since August, according to the WMO report.
The global average temperature was 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.
The WMO published its climate report as COP31 began in Turkey.
- Global temperature anomaly
- 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average
- WMO outlook
- Among the four warmest years on record
- Berkeley Earth forecast confidence
- 95%
- Previous annual temperature record
- 2024
- Atmospheric carbon dioxide
- About 426.8 parts per million in 2025
4 sources
What people are saying
The past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, and the heat in the oceans is breaking records for the tenth year in a row.
Every indicator here is telling the same story. We're seeing the heat trapped by greenhouse gasses is showing up in the ocean, in the atmosphere, in the melting of ice and the rising of sea levels.
We have had a run of record warm years.
We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Nino is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change.