Politics · United Kingdom · 4 hrs ago
Poll projects Labour majority under Andy Burnham, with Reform third
A new poll projects Labour would win 353 seats and a 56-seat majority if a UK general election were held now.
The projection puts the Conservatives on 90 seats and Reform UK on 81, with the Liberal Democrats on 70 and the SNP on 28.
It reflects a sharp rise in Labour support under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, compared with an April projection that gave Labour 86 seats.
The poll, conducted around Labour’s conference in Liverpool, estimates Labour has 28% of the vote, ahead of Reform on 21% and the Conservatives on 18%.
The figures also suggest Reform’s support is being divided on the right, with Restore Britain projected to win one seat.
The projection is not an election result, and Burnham has said he will wait until 2029, although some in Westminster expect a vote as early as December or next May.
The coming months will show whether Labour can keep its support, with voters looking for progress on living costs and public services.
A new Electoral Calculus projection says Labour would win a 56-seat majority if a general election were held tomorrow.
The poll projects 353 seats for Labour under Andy Burnham, ahead of the Conservatives on 90 and Reform UK on 81.
Labour is projected to receive 28 per cent of the vote, compared with 21 per cent for Reform UK and 18 per cent for the Conservatives.
The projection is based on Find Out Now surveys conducted around Labour’s conference in Liverpool.
PLMR chief executive Kevin Craig said British politics remained volatile and voters would want to see progress on issues including living costs and public services.
- Who
- Labour under Andy Burnham, the Conservatives, Reform UK and other parties are included in the projection.
- What
- An Electoral Calculus poll projects Labour would win a 56-seat Commons majority in a general election held tomorrow.
- When
- Published on 16 October 2026; the polling was conducted around Labour’s recent conference.
- Where
- The projection concerns seats in the UK House of Commons. The polling was conducted around Labour’s conference in Liverpool.
- Why
- The poll reflects a reported rise in support for Labour under Burnham; the article says he has used clear Left-of-centre rhetoric to win back voters.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Earlier Electoral Calculus research projected Labour would win 86 seats.
Electoral Calculus conducted the polling for its latest projection.
The Daily Mail published the projection that Labour would win 353 seats and a 56-seat majority.
- Labour projected seats
- 353
- Labour projected majority
- 56 seats
- Conservative projected seats
- 90
- Reform UK projected seats
- 81
- Projected vote shares
- Labour 28%; Reform UK 21%; Conservatives 18%
- Other projected seats
- Liberal Democrats 70; SNP 28; Greens 4; Restore Britain 1
What people are saying
There is still a long way to go before the next election, and this latest polling shows just how volatile British politics has become.
Voters are clearly giving Labour another hearing, but they will want to see delivery on the issues that matter most to them, from the cost of living to public services, before they fully buy into the party again.
Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority.
The Right, by contrast, remains split.