Business · Energy & Commodities · 3 hrs ago
World Bank forecasts 23% rise in global commodity prices in 2026
The World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026 as conflict and shipping disruptions affect supply.
The forecast covers energy, food and metals markets worldwide, with the Middle East conflict and disrupted grain shipments in the Black Sea among the pressures.
Energy prices are forecast to climb 32%, while global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2%, its largest drop in more than four decades outside 2020.
Food prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, while metals prices are forecast to increase 25%.
The Bank warns that further conflict or severe weather could push prices higher and increase risks of inflation and food insecurity.
It expects global commodity prices to fall 7% in 2027, but says new supply disruptions could keep price pressures high.
The World Bank forecasts that global commodity prices will rise about 23% in 2026, driven by conflict-related supply disruptions and other market pressures.
Energy prices are projected to rise 32%, while global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2%.
Food prices are forecast to increase about 10% in 2026, amid disrupted grain shipments and risks to harvests from El Niño.
Metal prices are projected to rise about 25%, and precious metals about 40%, as supply constraints and demand for safe-haven assets lift prices.
The bank expects commodity prices to fall about 7% in 2027, but warns that further conflict or supply disruptions could push prices higher.
- Who
- The World Bank issued the forecasts. It warned that conflict and supply disruptions could raise prices further.
- What
- Global commodity prices are forecast to rise about 23% in 2026.
- When
- The forecast was reported on October 28, 2026.
- Where
- The forecast concerns global commodity markets, with risks including conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments.
- Why
- Conflict-related energy and shipping disruptions, grain shipment problems, and strong demand for gold are driving prices higher.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The World Bank published its Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasting a roughly 23% rise in global commodity prices in 2026.
Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2%, while energy prices are forecast to rise 32%.
The World Bank expects global commodity prices to ease by about 7%.
- Global commodity prices
- Forecast to rise 23.1% in 2026
- Energy prices
- Forecast to rise 32% in 2026
- Global oil supply
- Forecast to fall 5.2% in 2026
- Brent crude
- Forecast average of $91–$92 a barrel in 2026
- Food prices
- Forecast to rise about 10% in 2026
- World Bank funding
- $50 billion to $60 billion made available, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing
5 sources
Commodities alimentícias vão subir em 2026 e 2027, diz Banco Mundial
World Bank sees commodity prices surging 23% in 2026 on Middle East war
Dünya Bankası, emtia fiyatlarının 2026'da artmasını bekliyor
Dünya Bankası, emtia fiyatlarının 2026'da yüzde 23 artmasını bekliyor
البنك الدولي: أسعار السلع الأولية تقفز 23% في 2026
What people are saying
Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,
Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth.
إن ارتفاع تكاليف الطاقة واضطرابات التجارة يرفعان أسعار طائفة واسعة من السلع، بما يهدد بتفاقم التضخم وانعدام الأمن الغذائي وإبطاء النمو الاقتصادي