Business · Economy · 13 hrs ago
US productivity rises, but analysts say AI is not yet the main cause
US productivity has picked up after slowing following the 2008 financial crisis.
Productivity measures how much an economy produces with the same resources, and US hourly labour productivity averaged 2.4% annual growth from 2023 to 2025, up from 1.3% between 2014 and 2019.
The recent rise is not clearly due to AI; economists point instead to earlier digital investments and changes such as remote work after the pandemic.
They say AI may produce bigger gains when companies reorganise how they work, but that shift has not yet happened on a large scale.
Higher productivity is helping support US growth, which reached a 3.4% annualised rate in the latest quarter cited.
The Federal Reserve raised its long-term US growth forecast from 1.8% to 2%, about twice the pace expected for major European economies, including France.
Larger AI-driven gains may come later if businesses change their production methods, but the timing is uncertain.
US labor productivity growth averaged 2.4% a year from 2023 to 2025, up from 1.3% from 2014 to 2019.
Analysts say past digital investment and changes accelerated by the pandemic are more likely explanations for the recent gains than artificial intelligence.
Productivity growth reached 3.6% at an annualized rate over the latest three-month period, according to data cited from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The productivity rebound is one factor behind strong US growth and has led the Federal Reserve to raise its long-term growth forecast from 1.8% to 2%.
- Who
- US workers and businesses, with analysts including Anis Bensaidani assessing the productivity gains.
- What
- US productivity has risen, but analysts say it is too early to attribute the gains mainly to AI.
- When
- Productivity averaged 2.4% annual growth from 2023 to 2025; the latest three-month figure was reported in data published Thursday.
- Where
- United States.
- Why
- Analysts point to earlier digital investment and pandemic-accelerated changes, including remote work. They say broader AI gains may depend on companies reorganizing production.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
US labor productivity growth averaged 1.3% a year.
US labor productivity growth averaged 2.4% a year.
Jerome Powell said he had not expected productivity to remain so high for so many years.
Anis Bensaidani cited the productivity growth figures in a note.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed productivity rising at a 3.6% annualized rate over the latest three-month period.
- Annual productivity growth, 2023–2025
- 2.4%
- Annual productivity growth, 2014–2019
- 1.3%
- Latest three-month productivity growth
- 3.6% annualized
- US long-term growth forecast
- Raised from 1.8% to 2%
What people are saying
I would never have imagined seeing productivity so high for so many years
At this stage, it is difficult to say. There may be a range of microeconomic gains as AI is deployed today. But the real change will come when companies massively reorganize their production
I think productivity gains began to show up after Covid with the digitization of work, remote work and the implementation of machine learning. We are only scratching the surface of AI's potential