Kalshi traders expect US inflation to stay high after a likely 2026 peak

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  Kalshi traders expect US inflation to remain elevated through the rest of 2026, despite thinking it has likely peaked for the year.

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  The market puts the expected September year-over-year consumer price index increase at 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August.

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  Kalshi traders assign just under one-in-three odds to inflation reaching a new high in 2026.

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  CNBC reports that traders expect core inflation to stay elevated, with only a 6% chance it falls below 2.2% this year.

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  The sources describe different forecast periods: CNBC reports on September CPI, while Crypto Briefing gives Kalshi’s median forecast for December CPI.

Who

Traders on Kalshi, a prediction market platform.

What

They expect inflation to remain sticky after likely peaking in 2026. They forecast a 3.6% year-over-year September CPI increase.

When

The reports were published on October 12, 2026. September CPI was due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Where

United States.

Why

Traders expect persistent pressure from housing costs, tariffs and services pricing; Crypto Briefing also says easing energy prices have moderated expectations.

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