Business · Economy · 7 hrs ago
Indonesia GDP Growth Dispute Centers on Statistical Differences
Indonesia’s statistics agency reported 5.47% growth in the third quarter of 2026 and 5.45% for January to September.
Anthony Budiawan challenged those figures, arguing that statistical differences between ways of measuring GDP meant growth was much lower.
He estimated growth at 0.26% in the quarter and a 0.4% contraction over January to September.
GDP can be calculated using production, spending and income, but differences in data and methods can make the results diverge.
Those differences do not by themselves prove overestimated production, because they can have several causes, including goods being added to inventories.
The opinion piece says that applying the same correction to both 2025 and 2026 would produce growth estimates of about 4.8% for the quarter and 4.1% for January to September.
The alternative figures are simulations, not verified growth rates, and the piece says nominal GDP differences cannot be directly used to correct real growth.
Indonesia’s official statistics agency reported economic growth of 5.47 percent in the third quarter of 2026 and 5.45 percent for January to September.
Economist Anthony Budiawan argued that statistical differences between production-based and expenditure-based GDP estimates meant growth was much lower.
His simulation put third-quarter growth at 0.26 percent and growth for January to September at minus 0.4 percent.
A Detik opinion article said those estimates treat all statistical differences as overestimated production without sufficient evidence.
It also argued that any adjustment should be applied consistently to both 2026 and the 2025 comparison period.
- Who
- Indonesia’s statistics agency, BPS, published the growth figures; economist Anthony Budiawan challenged them.
- What
- The dispute concerns whether statistical differences in GDP estimates mean reported economic growth is overstated.
- When
- The discussion followed a social media post on November 7, 2026, and a report on November 8.
- Where
- Indonesia.
- Why
- Budiawan treated the statistical differences as overestimated production. The Detik opinion article argued that this interpretation is not established by the data.
Anthony Budiawan
Detik opinion article
Statistical differences
Anthony Budiawan
Budiawan treated the differences as overestimated production and used them to simulate much lower growth.
Detik opinion article
The article said the differences can have several causes and do not automatically show overestimated production.
Growth estimates
Anthony Budiawan
His simulation put third-quarter growth at 0.26 percent and January-to-September growth at minus 0.4 percent.
Detik opinion article
The article said those figures are not established as actual growth; it estimated about 4.8 percent and 4.1 percent if the adjustment were applied consistently to both years.
Anthony Budiawan posted a social media piece questioning Indonesia’s reported economic growth.
Fajar published a report describing Budiawan’s simulation of much lower growth.
Detik published an opinion article responding to criticism about statistical differences and growth.
- Official third-quarter growth
- 5.47 percent
- Official January–September growth
- 5.45 percent
- Budiawan’s simulated third-quarter growth
- 0.26 percent
- Budiawan’s simulated January–September growth
- Minus 0.4 percent
- Third-quarter statistical difference
- Rp333.2 trillion, or about 4.94 percent of GDP