Business · Economy · 6 hrs ago
Economists expect Brazil to keep its key interest rate at 13.75%
Economists expect Brazil’s Selic rate to stay at 13.75% through the end of the year after revising their forecast.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy committee kept the rate unchanged at its last meeting, contrary to earlier expectations of a cut.
The rate affects borrowing costs and is used to help control inflation.
The committee said slower economic activity called for caution, and its decision was unanimous.
Economists also pointed to a weaker outlook for inflation and the dollar’s rise after the second round of elections, while saying a December cut would depend partly on government economic plans.
The next rate decision is due on December 8 and 9, and the central bank is set to publish more detail about its last decision on Tuesday.
Forecasts in the latest survey put inflation at 5.22% this year and 4.9% next year, while growth is expected at 1.75% this year.
Economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank expect the key Selic interest rate to remain at 13.75% through the end of 2026.
The forecast changed after the Monetary Policy Committee kept the rate at 13.75% at its meeting that ended on November 4.
The economists now expect no change at the committee’s December 8-9 meeting, the last scheduled rate decision of the year.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has advocated cutting interest rates, while the committee said economic conditions called for caution.
The Focus survey also raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.9% and lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.75%.
- Who
- Economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank expect the rate to stay unchanged. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has advocated a cut.
- What
- The Selic key interest rate is expected to remain at 13.75% through the end of 2026.
- When
- The forecast was reported on November 9, 2026. Economists expect no change at the December 8-9 meeting.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Economists revised their forecast after the Monetary Policy Committee kept the rate at 13.75%. The committee cited a sharper slowdown in economic activity and said the situation called for caution.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Economists surveyed by the central bank
Aspect
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Lula has advocated a reduction in interest rates.
Economists surveyed by the central bank
Economists expect the Selic rate to remain at 13.75% through the end of 2026.
Aspect
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Lula has pointed to Brazil’s high real interest rate.
Economists surveyed by the central bank
The committee’s decision to hold the rate was unanimous, and it cited a challenging economic context that required caution.
Analysts expected the rate to end 2026 at 13.5%, after a 0.25 percentage-point cut.
The Monetary Policy Committee kept the Selic rate at 13.75% in a unanimous decision.
The Focus survey reported that economists expected the rate to remain at 13.75% through the end of the year.
The committee is scheduled to hold its final rate-setting meeting of the year.
- Selic rate
- 13.75%
- 2026 year-end rate forecast
- 13.75%
- Next rate decision
- December 8-9, 2026
- 2027 inflation forecast
- 4.9%
- 2026 GDP growth forecast
- 1.75%
What people are saying
this context is a challenging scenario for interest-rate policy and requires caution and serenity in its actions