Business · Economy · 5 hrs ago
CREA cuts 2026 Canadian home sales forecast for third time
The Canadian Real Estate Association cut its 2026 sales forecast for the third time this year.
It now expects 444,530 homes to sell across Canada, 5.2% fewer than in 2025, compared with its July forecast of a 1.4% decline.
September sales fell 7.7% from a year earlier and were also 2.3% lower than in August.
The national average sale price in September was $666,538, down 1.6% from the same month last year.
CREA still forecasts the average price for all of 2026 to rise 0.2% to $681,681, about $5,000 less than it predicted in summer.
Higher fixed mortgage rates and concerns about possible Bank of Canada rate hikes are making buyers cautious, as affordability is already stretched.
CREA economist Shaun Cathcart says uncertainty may keep some buyers on the sidelines through the remaining months of the year.
The Canadian Real Estate Association cut its 2026 home sales forecast for the third straight quarter.
CREA now expects 444,530 homes to be sold this year, 5.2 per cent fewer than in 2025.
Canadian home sales fell 2.3 per cent in September from August and 7.7 per cent from a year earlier.
CREA cited higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about possible Bank of Canada rate hikes as pressures on buyers.
The national average sale price in September was $666,538, down 1.6 per cent from a year earlier.
- Who
- The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its forecast. Homebuyers and sellers are affected by the market changes.
- What
- CREA lowered its forecast for 2026 home sales to 444,530, while September sales declined.
- When
- The forecast and September sales figures were reported on October 16, 2026. The sales data covers September.
- Where
- Canada.
- Why
- CREA cited higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about possible Bank of Canada rate hikes, which may keep buyers on the sidelines.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
CREA made a downward revision to its home sales forecast, according to CBC.
CREA again revised its forecast down, after previously expecting a 1.4 per cent year-over-year decline.
National home sales fell 2.3 per cent from August and 7.7 per cent from September 2025.
CREA reported a forecast of 444,530 home sales for 2026, 5.2 per cent below 2025.
- 2026 home sales forecast
- 444,530 homes
- Forecast change from 2025
- 5.2 per cent decrease
- September sales change from August
- 2.3 per cent decrease
- September sales change year over year
- 7.7 per cent decrease
- September national average sale price
- $666,538
- Average sale price change year over year
- 1.6 per cent decrease
6 sources
CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year
Canadian home sales forecast downgraded again for 2026 by CREA
CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast
CREA revises down 2026 home sales forecast again as September transactions fall 7.7% over same month last year
What people are saying
After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September,
We've been on this roller-coaster for two years now,
The chaotic nature of language coming out of Washington is directly impacting people's willingness to make large financial decisions like buying a home,