Politics · Brazil · 7 hrs ago
Poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie in Brazil
A poll of Brazil’s presidential runoff puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva almost level.
Among valid votes, Bolsonaro has 50.1% and Lula has 49.9%, a gap of just 0.2 percentage points.
The difference is within the 2.2-point margin of error, so the poll does not show a clear lead.
In the previous poll by the same pollster, Bolsonaro had 51.5% and Lula 48.9%, but those changes are also within the current margin of error.
The candidates have nearly identical rejection levels, with 46.6% saying they would not vote for Bolsonaro and 46.2% saying they would not vote for Lula.
The survey interviewed 2,000 voters by phone on October 23 and 24, with a 95% confidence interval.
The poll was released just days before the national vote, but it does not say what the final result will be.
A Futura poll found Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a technical tie in a 2026 presidential runoff scenario.
Bolsonaro had 50.1% of valid votes and Lula had 49.9%, a gap of 0.2 percentage points.
The difference was within the poll’s 2.2-point margin of error.
For total votes, Bolsonaro had 48.2% and Lula had 47.9%.
The poll interviewed 2,000 voters by phone on October 23 and 24, 2026.
- Who
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- A Futura poll found the candidates in a technical tie in a 2026 presidential runoff scenario.
- When
- The poll was published on October 24, 2026; interviews took place on October 23 and 24.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Not stated
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
An earlier Futura poll put Bolsonaro at 51.5% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes.
Futura interviewed 2,000 voters for its poll.
Futura published results showing Bolsonaro at 50.1% and Lula at 49.9% of valid votes.
- Valid votes
- Bolsonaro 50.1%; Lula 49.9%
- Margin of error
- 2.2 percentage points
- Total votes
- Bolsonaro 48.2%; Lula 47.9%
- Sample
- 2,000 voters
- Interview dates
- October 23–24, 2026