Business · Markets · 8 hrs ago
Investors split on Brazil’s market outlook under Bolsonaro or Lula
Investors expect sharply different market moves depending on Brazil’s election result.
Nearly half of those surveyed by Citi expect the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, to rise by more than 5% in the first trading session after the runoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is re-elected, 80% expect the index to fall more than 5%.
Bolsonaro is the candidate of the Liberal Party, while Lula is the candidate of the Workers’ Party.
The survey reflects investors’ expectations, not a guaranteed market outcome.
The forecast concerns the first trading session after the runoff, and the survey gives no further details about what might drive the predicted moves.
Nearly half of investors surveyed by Citi expect Brazil’s Ibovespa index to rise by more than 5% in the first trading session after the presidential runoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is re-elected, 80% expect the index to fall by more than 5%.
The survey concerns investors’ expectations under the two possible election outcomes.
UOL published the report on October 23, 2026.
- Who
- Investors surveyed by Citi, and presidential candidates Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- The survey found sharply different expectations for the Ibovespa depending on who wins the presidential runoff.
- When
- The projections are for the first trading session after the runoff. The report was published on October 23, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The projections depend on which candidate wins the presidential runoff; the sources do not state why investors expect these outcomes.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
This story does not have a timeline yet.
- Survey source
- Citi
- Flávio Bolsonaro scenario
- Nearly half expect the Ibovespa to rise more than 5%
- Lula re-election scenario
- 80% expect the Ibovespa to fall more than 5%
- Publication date
- October 23, 2026