Business · Markets · 2 hrs ago
Gold holds near $4,170 as traders reassess Fed rate-hike prospects
Gold traded near $4,170 an ounce as investors weighed changing expectations for US interest rates against rising oil prices.
After a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok, traders cut the chance they placed on a quarter-point rate increase from about one in three to about 15%.
The speech did not change expectations that the Fed will hold rates later this month.
Higher oil prices lifted Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold because it pays no interest.
Brent crude reached $110 a barrel, its highest level since May.
Gold has fallen about a fifth since late February, when the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, disrupting energy markets and adding to inflation concerns.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 last month, and further tightening has not been ruled out.
Gold traded near $4,170 an ounce as traders weighed lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike against rising Treasury yields.
After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke in Bangkok, traders reduced the perceived chance of a quarter-point rate hike from one in three to about 15%.
Higher oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on gold, which does not pay interest.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,168.49 in New York.
- Who
- Gold traders and the Federal Reserve. Traders reassessed the chance of a rate hike after Chair Kevin Warsh spoke.
- What
- Gold held near $4,170 an ounce as traders weighed lower rate-hike expectations against higher Treasury yields.
- When
- October 18, 2026, according to the article’s publication date.
- Where
- Gold traded near $4,170 an ounce; Warsh gave his speech in Bangkok.
- Why
- Traders reduced bets on an imminent rate hike after Warsh’s speech, while higher oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Gold rose 1.6%, its biggest gain in more than two weeks.
Traders reduced the perceived chance of a quarter-point rate hike from one in three to about 15%.
- Gold price
- Near $4,170 an ounce
- Spot gold
- Fell 0.1% to $4,168.49 in New York
- Rate-hike probability
- About 15%, down from one in three
- Brent crude
- Touched $110 a barrel, its first time at that level since May
- Published
- October 18, 2026
What people are saying
Warsh is deliberately trying to temper the market’s hawkish rate expectations and restore some stability to the Treasury market.
While inflation remains a concern and further tightening cannot be ruled out, Warsh’s latest tone suggests little urgency to deliver consecutive rate hikes.