Business · Energy & Commodities · 3 hrs ago
Iran Plans for a Budget With No Oil Revenue
Iran is preparing next year’s budget for oil revenue to fall to zero.
The country has loaded no crude since August 25, and its oil held at sea outside the US blockade fell to zero by mid-October.
Oil provides about 30% of Iran’s government budget, and a larger share of total government revenue when indirect income is included.
Chinese buyers usually pay one to two months after delivery, so analysts expect oil cash to dry up around mid-December.
That would cause a cash-flow squeeze, not an immediate collapse, though Iran’s economy is already in a deep recession.
Oil production had fallen below 2 million barrels a day in the months before late October, from 3.59 million in February.
The US blockade remains in place, and direct talks have stalled after President Donald Trump removed Vice President JD Vance from negotiations; no exit from the standoff is in sight.
Iran is preparing next year’s budget for a scenario in which oil revenue falls to zero.
Oil revenue directly accounts for roughly 30% of the government budget, according to analysts cited in the article.
Iran has loaded no crude since August 25, and oil held at sea outside the US blockade fell to zero by mid-October.
Kpler expects oil revenue could stop around mid-December because Chinese buyers pay one to two months after delivery.
Analysts say the disruption could create a cash-flow crisis and deepen a recession, but does not mean Iran is about to collapse.
- Who
- Iran’s government is preparing the budget; senior budget official Mohammad Ghasemi urged officials to plan for zero oil revenue.
- What
- Iran is drafting next year’s budget on the premise that oil revenue could fall to zero.
- When
- The budget is for next year. Kpler expects oil revenue could stop around mid-December.
- Where
- Iran.
- Why
- Iran has not loaded crude since August 25, and oil held at sea outside the US blockade fell to zero by mid-October.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The war began, and Iranian oil production was reported at 3.59 million barrels per day that month.
The US naval blockade was imposed.
Iran had last loaded crude, according to the US Treasury.
Oil Iran held at sea outside the US blockade fell to zero.
Kpler expects oil revenue could stop because Chinese buyers pay one to two months after delivery.
- Oil revenue share
- Roughly 30% of the government budget directly
- Last crude loading
- August 25
- Oil held outside blockade
- Fell from 88.8 million barrels in mid-July to zero by mid-October
- Oil stranded inside blockade
- 43 million barrels
- Production in February
- 3.59 million barrels per day
What people are saying
The Iranian leadership is betting that if it holds out long enough, those with the most to lose from this economic crisis – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait – will press Washington harder to find an exit.
Adapting to sanctions does not mean eliminating their harm
The December timeline is more of a cash flow kind of disruption, and not really a collapse state
Iran’s economy is not on the verge of collapse, it is simply experiencing a deep recession caused by an external shock
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