Business · Energy & Commodities · 38 mins ago
IEA says oil market will return to surplus in late 2026
The International Energy Agency expects oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a shortage.
Gulf oil exports disrupted by the war in Iran are recovering, despite continued attacks on shipping.
The IEA says supply will average 105 million barrels a day, 1.7 million more than expected demand.
High prices have reduced consumption, and the agency forecasts global oil demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026.
The IEA expects 71 million barrels from emergency reserves to be made available by the end of February, including diesel.
More supply is also expected from producers including the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana.
The agency forecasts a larger surplus in 2027, while warning that attacks and the US blockade on Iran continue to affect oil shipments and output.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the world oil market is expected to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The agency forecast fourth-quarter supply of 105 million barrels per day, 1.7 million barrels per day above demand.
It said Middle East exports are recovering faster than global oil demand, despite continued attacks on shipping.
The IEA said members would make 71 million barrels from emergency reserves available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.
For 2027, the agency projected a global supply surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day.
- Who
- The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialised countries.
- What
- It forecast the world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- When
- The IEA made the forecast on Nov. 13, 2026.
- Where
- The global oil market; the agency is based in Paris.
- Why
- Middle East exports are recovering faster than global oil demand, while high oil prices have curbed demand.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
IEA members pledged a record release of oil from their emergency reserves.
The Iran war began, disrupting Gulf oil exports.
OPEC+ pumped 41.23 million barrels per day of crude, up about 2.04 million barrels per day from September.
The IEA said the market would return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The IEA said 71 million barrels from the reserves release would be made available, including 15 million barrels of diesel.
- Fourth-quarter 2026 supply
- 105 million barrels per day
- Supply above forecast demand
- 1.7 million barrels per day
- Emergency reserves release remaining
- 71 million barrels by the end of February
- Diesel in remaining release
- 15 million barrels
- 2027 projected surplus
- About 3.8 million barrels per day
3 sources
What people are saying
The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran