Business · Markets · 4 hrs ago
US Midterm Elections and Iran Talks Weigh on Global Markets
Investors began the week watching US midterm elections and their market impact, as the results could affect President Donald Trump's room to act in the Middle East.
The elections are taking place amid uncertainty over US policy and regional tensions.
US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a deal through mediators that could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil shipments.
Iran's foreign minister said the strait would reopen and talks would continue if Washington accepted Tehran's conditions.
Hopes for an agreement helped push Brent crude down 3.2% to about $109 a barrel.
Meanwhile, strong US economic data and persistent inflation have kept expectations alive that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this year.
Investors are also awaiting US jobs data and Apple's results, while one market strategist expects stocks could recover for at least six months after the midterms, though a stronger-than-expected Democratic win could unsettle markets.
US midterm elections and upcoming jobs data are among the main events investors are watching, according to Habertürk.
Markets are focused on whether President Donald Trump’s administration will retain its congressional majority.
The US nonfarm payrolls report due Friday is expected to influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Strategist Wilson said a stock-market pullback around the midterms could create a buying opportunity, while warning that a stronger-than-expected Democratic victory could unsettle markets.
Investors are also monitoring inflation, interest-rate expectations, corporate results and uncertainty linked to the war in Iran.
- Who
- Investors, US political parties and policymakers, including President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve.
- What
- Global markets are weighing the US midterm elections and jobs data alongside interest-rate and geopolitical risks.
- When
- The reports were published on November 2, 2026; the US jobs report is due Friday, according to Habertürk.
- Where
- The United States and global financial markets.
- Why
- Election outcomes could affect policy and market expectations, while jobs and inflation data may shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.
Democrats
Trump administration and Republicans
Election outcome
Democrats
Wilson said Democrats are expected to win the House and possibly the Senate, and that markets have largely priced this in.
Trump administration and Republicans
Markets are focused on whether Trump’s administration will retain its congressional majority.
Market impact
Democrats
Wilson said a stronger-than-expected Democratic victory could unsettle markets and lead to more resistance to data-center investments and new regulations.
Trump administration and Republicans
Wilson expects a post-election market recovery lasting at least six months, despite uncertainty.
Habertürk and Bloomberg HT published reports on the market outlook ahead of the US midterm elections and jobs data.
The US nonfarm payrolls report is due, with its signals expected to shape Federal Reserve expectations.
- US nonfarm payrolls
- Due Friday, according to Habertürk
- Fed rate outlook
- Market pricing puts the chance of another rate increase this year above 70%
- Brent crude
- December futures fell 3.2% to around $109 a barrel
- US 10-year Treasury yield
- Began the week at 4.94%
- S&P 500
- Wilson said a midterm-related decline could create a buying opportunity
3 sources
What people are saying
If the Washington administration accepts Tehran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and negotiations will continue.
I expect a market recovery after the midterms that could last at least six months.
A stronger-than-expected Democratic victory could be more disruptive for markets.