Business · Economy · 48 mins ago
Most analysts expect Mexico's central bank to hold rates through 2027
A majority of analysts expect Mexico's central bank to keep its interest rate unchanged for the rest of 2026 and throughout 2027.
The forecast comes from a Citi survey of 36 analysts, not a decision by the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico.
Eleven analysts expect a rate change, with two predicting one this year and nine expecting one in 2027.
Some forecast cuts, while others predict increases, including six analysts who expect a quarter-point rise in the first half of 2027.
The gap between Mexican and US interest rates is at a record low, reducing the peso's appeal to investors; the currency fell 6% in September.
Analysts also expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once more this year, a factor that could affect the peso.
Analysts raised their year-end dollar forecasts to 18.20 pesos for 2026 and 18.60 for 2027, while keeping their Mexico growth forecasts at 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
Most analysts surveyed by Citi expect Mexico’s central bank to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged through 2027.
Twenty-five of 36 analysts forecast no rate changes in the remaining meetings of 2026 or in 2027.
Of the 11 analysts who expect a change, two forecast one in 2026 and nine expect one in 2027.
Forecasts for 2027 are split between rate increases and cuts.
The survey also put Mexico’s year-end exchange rate at 18.20 pesos per dollar in 2026 and 18.60 in 2027.
- Who
- The Bank of Mexico and analysts surveyed by Citi.
- What
- Most analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged through 2027.
- When
- The survey was published on October 20, 2026; forecasts cover the rest of 2026 and 2027.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- The article cites the historically low interest-rate gap between Mexico and the United States, which has reduced the peso’s appeal to investors.
Analysts expecting no rate change
Analysts expecting a rate change
Rate outlook
Analysts expecting no rate change
Twenty-five of the 36 analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged through 2027.
Analysts expecting a rate change
Eleven analysts expect a change: two in 2026 and nine in 2027.
2027 forecast
Analysts expecting no rate change
They expect no change during 2027.
Analysts expecting a rate change
Six analysts expect an increase in the first half of 2027, while three expect a cut.
Bankaool and Finamex expect the Bank of Mexico to cut its benchmark rate at the November meeting.
BNP Paribas, Banco Bancrea, Banorte, Invex, Masari Casa de Bolsa and Natixis expect a 25-basis-point rate increase.
BX+ and Banco Base expect a quarter-point rate cut.
Oxford Economics expects a rate cut.
- Survey sample
- 36 analysts
- No-change forecast
- 25 analysts expect no rate change through 2027
- Rate-change forecast
- 11 analysts expect a change: two in 2026 and nine in 2027
- 2026 exchange-rate forecast
- 18.20 pesos per U.S. dollar
- 2027 exchange-rate forecast
- 18.60 pesos per U.S. dollar