Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 16 hrs ago
Developing El Niño resembles the powerful 1997–98 event, NASA says
A strengthening El Niño is building across the equatorial Pacific and could rank among the strongest on record.
El Niño happens when unusually warm water spreads east across the Pacific as trade winds weaken, affecting weather patterns around the world.
NASA compared satellite measurements of sea levels and found this event currently resembles 1997–98, with warm water reaching toward South America.
The 1997–98 and 2015–16 events were both powerful, but their rainfall patterns differed, and the earlier one brought heavy rain and flooding in parts of the United States.
For winter 2026–27, forecasts tilt toward stormier, wetter conditions in parts of the South and wetter-than-average conditions along the East Coast.
The event could rival or surpass past records, but scientists say El Niños vary and the eventual effects are not yet clear.
NASA says the developing 2026 El Niño resembles the powerful 1997–98 event in satellite images of sea levels across the Pacific.
The comparison shows higher-than-normal sea levels and warm water extending toward South America in both events.
NASA says the current event developed more suddenly than the 1997–98 El Niño and could become even bigger.
Scientists say the weather impacts remain uncertain, because each El Niño has its own characteristics.
The 2015–16 event was also very strong, but its warm water did not extend as far toward South America.
- Who
- NASA scientists, including Josh Willis of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, compared the events.
- What
- Satellite data shows the developing 2026 El Niño has a pattern similar to the 1997–98 event. NASA says it could become even bigger.
- When
- The comparison was published on October 23, 2026, using satellite images from October 1997, 2015 and 2026.
- Where
- The comparison focuses on sea levels across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, including waters near South America.
- Why
- Scientists used satellite records to compare the developing event with past strong El Niños and assess its possible strength and impacts.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
NASA satellite data captured sea-level patterns during the 1997–98 El Niño.
Satellite data showed a strong El Niño whose warm water did not extend toward South America as much as in 1997.
NASA satellite data captured the developing El Niño’s sea-level pattern.
NASA published its comparison of the current event with past strong El Niños.
- Current event
- 2026–27 El Niño
- 1997 comparison image
- October 13, 1997
- 2015 comparison image
- October 12, 2015
- 2026 comparison image
- October 12, 2026
- Satellite record
- 35 years
- NASA scientist
- Josh Willis, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
4 sources
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El Niño Then and Now
What people are saying
And right now, this one is on track to be even bigger.
They’re all different in terms of where they land and how their impacts play out.
Just because this El Niño looks like 1997 doesn't mean it will be exactly the same—it's just our best guess at the moment.