Business · Energy & Commodities · 2 hrs ago
El Niño Risks Keeping Global Rice Prices High Into Early 2027
El Niño is raising concern about rice harvests across South and South-East Asia, where much of the world’s rice is grown.
The weather pattern often brings less rainfall to the region, putting crops at risk.
Global rice production is forecast to fall 2.4% in the 2026-27 season, to 552.47 million tonnes.
India’s rice output is forecast to drop 4.6% from the previous year, while Thailand’s is expected to fall 1.9%.
Rice prices are near a two-year high, and export offers from India, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam have risen since July.
Analysts expect prices to remain elevated through early 2027, though futures prices may ease as Asian harvests become clearer and the US harvest advances.
Global rice prices are near a two-year high as El Niño raises concerns about production in Asia.
The prices are expected to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2027, according to Hindu BusinessLine.
Export offers from India and Pakistan rose by $20 a tonne, while those from Thailand and Vietnam rose by $30 since July.
The Agricultural Market Information System projected global rice production would fall 2.4% to 552.47 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.
Bloomberg reported that the rise in Asian rice prices could add to food inflation.
- Who
- Rice producers and buyers in global markets, particularly in Asia, face the effects of higher prices and production risks.
- What
- Rice prices have climbed to near a two-year high, with El Niño raising concerns about supply and food inflation.
- When
- Prices are expected to remain elevated through Q1 2027.
- Where
- Global markets, with production risks concentrated in South and South-East Asia.
- Why
- El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall in parts of Asia and is affecting rice production prospects.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Export offers rose by $20 a tonne from India and Pakistan and $30 from Thailand and Vietnam.
CBOT-listed rice futures averaged $15.0 per hundredweight, according to BMI.
CBOT-listed rice futures reached a 29-month high of $17.8 per hundredweight, according to BMI.
Rice prices are expected to remain elevated amid concerns about El Niño’s effects on production.
- Global production forecast
- 552.47 million tonnes in 2026-27, down 2.4%
- Indian production forecast
- 147 million tonnes, down 4.6% year-on-year
- Thai production forecast
- 20.3 million tonnes, down 1.9% year-on-year
- Price outlook
- $17.5 per hundredweight in Q4 2026 and $7.2 in Q1 2027
- Recent futures high
- $17.8 per hundredweight in October, a 29-month high
2 sources
What people are saying
Rice is among the crops most “negatively affected”, where a large share of the world’s rice production is concentrated in South and South-East Asia, which typically endures reduced rainfall during El Niño events
We are revising our 2026 annual-average price forecast for CBOT-listed second-month rice futures from $12.9/cwt (hundred weight equalling 45.36 kg) to $14, following stronger-than-expected price momentum through Q3 2026
Importantly, we do not believe the magnitude of the ongoing strength in CBOT-listed rice futures signals a comparable deterioration in global physical market conditions, with the widening divergence between futures and physical export-price indicators suggesting that futures are pricing in a substantially larger prospective supply-risk premium than is currently evident in physical markets