French budget watchdog says 2026 growth forecast is hard to reach

France’s independent budget watchdog doubts the government’s growth forecast of 0.5% for 2026.

It says growth of 0.3% is more plausible.

The assessment follows recent figures showing France’s economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, after falling 0.2% in the first quarter and stagnating in the second.

The watchdog also says the government’s 5.4% deficit forecast is at risk because of recent economic changes.

The government has kept its forecasts in its end-of-year budget plan, and Economy Minister Roland Lescure says there is no reason to change the deficit target.

The watchdog also considers the government’s inflation forecast of 2.1% too low, while the Bank of France’s 0.4% growth forecast for 2026 may be revised in mid-December.